Record number of migrants crossing Channel: What's driving the increase?

The number of people crossing the English channel has increased by 48% compared to the same time last year. ITV News Correspondent Neil Connery reports

The number of migrants who have crossed the English Channel so far this year is the highest on record.

The latest Home Office figures show nearly 20,000 people have made the perilous journey in the first half of this year, which is 48% higher than the same time last year and 75% higher than this time in 2023.

On Monday, 879 people crossed the channel across 13 small boats. That’s the third highest daily number of arrivals this year.

A spokesperson for Number 10 said the numbers were “clearly unacceptable” and that tackling the issue required international partnerships and solutions.

“Let’s be clear, the rising numbers in recent years are because these gangs have been allowed to embed industrial-scale smuggling enterprises across Europe.”

But Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said a “removals deterrent” was required to stop the boats crossing.

“One year into Labour’s government and the boats haven’t stopped – they’ve multiplied,” he said.

“Labour tore up our deterrent and replaced it with fantasy.”

So what is driving the increase in migrant crossings?

Good weather

Sunny weather and optimum boating conditions is one factor behind the rise in people crossing the channel.

Boat arrivals typically peak in the warmer summer months, according to the Home Office. Government figures released last month confirmed there had been a record number of ‘red days’ in the 12 months to April 2025.

Each day, the Met Office assesses the likelihood of small boat crossings in the English channel based on forecasted conditions, including wind speed, swell and rainfall.

‘Red days’ refer to a ‘likely’ or ‘highly likely’ chance of seeing small boat activity. There were 190 red days in the 12 months to April 2025 – that’s an 80 per cent increase on the previous few years.

Global conflicts

A rise in global conflicts and instability around the world has contributed to more people fleeing their home countries and seeking asylum in the UK.

More than 123 million people were displaced worldwide last year. According to Home Office figures, Afghans were the top nationality arriving by small boat in the UK in 2024. Syrians made up the second largest group, followed by people from Iran, Vietnam and Eritrea.

More people arriving on each boat

The average number of people being crammed onto small boats also appears to be increasing each year.

Each boat now averages 54 people, compared with 50 people per boat last year and 29 in 2022, according to Home Office figures. Yet, the average number of people per boat arriving on Monday was 67.

Are the deterrents working?

Most people are entering the UK by crossing from the French coast near Calais but French authorities cannot currently intervene once people have entered the water.

New rules have been agreed to which will soon allow police to enter shallow waters to try to stop smaller boats picking migrants up from the beach.

Several other new policing initiatives are expected to be announced this month. The Government’s Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill is also continuing through Parliament, which will hand counter-terror style powers to police and introduce new criminal offences to crack down on people-smuggling gangs.