Iran’s protests pose a huge danger. Danger for the protestors, danger for the authorities, danger for the wider world.
Iran may be largely cut off, with the internet blocked, phone lines disconnected and flights suspended, but that has neither damaged the momentum of the protests nor reduced the potential fallout.
A few images have emerged, suggesting the sense of anger, injustice and determination of those demanding a change to their lives and their country has not eased.
Statements from the Ayatollah suggest there will be no backing down by the Iranian Republic either, with the blame being put on foreign agitators for fermenting disorder and warnings of the harshest response to ongoing discord.
And President Trump is not stepping back, he continues to threaten military action in support of those on the streets, should the authorities seek to quell these protests as they have others, resulting in large numbers of deaths and injuries.
Reports now suggest more than five hundred are dead, with hospitals treating many seriously injured civilians. That figure is likely far higher.
Those on the streets are from across society, the young, shopkeepers, business people, and professionals. The danger for them is how their displays of discontent are being dealt with.
The Iranian president says he wishes to address their grievances, but also blames malign foreign forces. So long as that view holds, there can be no meaningful dialogue with those on the streets.
Firstly, it fails to acknowledge the grievances driving them, secondly it denies any chance for dialogue. The Islamic Republic have put down protests before with dreadful consequences, with the country shielded from global view, it can do so again.
However, this is also a moment of great jeopardy for the clerics who have ruled for almost 50 years. This uprising includes some of those who would previously have been loyal or at least subservient; that some of their support base has taken to the streets will not have gone unnoticed.
While these protests alone may not be the tipping point to unseat a regime itself born of revolution, they will do harm. They can be put down, at huge cost, but without significant change, the grievances will re-emerge with potentially even more jeopardy.
The intensity of the protests has come as a surprise internally and to the West, not least because in part they follow a rally cry from the son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi, a man reviled by many who has lived his life outside Iran since his father was deposed in 1979 in the Iranian Revolution.
That he has emerged as a voice for the disenchanted is seen by many I have spoken with as a reflection of the desperation. Iran does not have a single strong opposition figure, and in the absence of one, he has come to the fore. Should a single figure emerge from within Iran, however unlikely, they would garner huge support.
After the 2022, the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests, some societal changes did emerge. The brutal crackdown on women not wearing headscarves eased somewhat, so too the restrictions on music and dancing but that has not been enough.
Iran is not monolithic, and there remains strong support for the Supreme Leader and his theocratic governance from the often older, religious population and the young ideologues steeped in the Shia faith.
Should elections be held, it is likely 50% would vote for the status quo, but a similar number are done with it and done with waiting for change. They are placing significant internal pressure on the ruling party from within, and what is different now is that pressure comes at the same time as external pressure is being brought to bear.
That pressure is in the form of President Trump, shouting loudly from the sidelines that he may deploy his military might to support the protestors should their government turn on them.
High on success from whipping President Maduro from his fortified bedroom, the president seems emboldened and excited by the prospect of once more taking on Iran.
However, Iran is not Venezuela, and the consequences of any hit could be global. The 12-day war, when Israel and the USA hit Iranian nuclear sites, had the power of surprise; any hit now would not have that advantage.
Those days in June were a costly learning experience for Iran, and they are ready now. Even before these protests, they were braced for another hit and prepared for it, without question, the response this time would be greater and directed at Israel, American ships and bases in the region.
Iran is also not Syria, and any thought that the Ayatollah would flee rather than die is to fundamentally misunderstand the ideology of the man. Those who know the 87-year old acknowledge he would rather kill himself or be killed than leave for safer shores.
The United States has form for regime change, and the forever wars Donald Trump vowed to end are testimony to that. Displacing the Iranian leadership now leaves a country of around 100 million with no obvious replacement. Intervention would unleash an uncontrollable situation.
Use of force by the US now risks civil war within Iran and wider conflict externally.
Use of force by the Iranian authorities might buy time, but it will not take away the threat to their survival.
Use of force and continued demonstrations by the protestors further risks their own survival.
This situation is beyond the threshold for an easy way out, it is not yet past the threshold for a truly perilous global crisis, but it is very close.
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