Green groups warn of rising flood threat with 380,000 more Scots homes at 'high risk'

More than 800,000 homes could be at high risk of severe flooding by 2080, an analysis has found, as green groups warn of the growing climate change impacts facing UK households.

Campaigners are urging the Government and other political parties to make polluters pay, fund local authorities and emergency services, and ensure access to affordable home insurance ahead of the local elections.

Communities across the country have been hit by storms, incessant rainfall and flooding in recent weeks, with the South East and south of England experiencing their wettest starts to the year on record.

Around 866,000 homes – equivalent to the total of those in Birmingham, Liverpool and Sheffield – could be at “high” or “very high” risk from increased levels of flooding by 2080 should global temperatures rise by 2.4C above pre-industrial levels, according to the research carried out by flood risk assessment firm Geosmart on behalf of Greenpeace.

The analysis compared the level of flood risk faced by each region and local authority across Britain under this climate scenario.

It showed that 386,716 homes in Scotland could face a “high” or “very high” risk of severe flooding, amounting to 19% of all Scottish homes.

This was followed by 122,484 homes in the South East of England – 2% of all homes in the region – 71,431 in Wales (5%), 65,884 in the South West (3%) and 59,918 in the East of England (2%).

For other regions, the analysis suggests 53,229 would be at this higher risk level in the East Midlands (2%), 45,320 in the North West (2%), 35,459 in Yorkshire and the Humber (2%), 18,049 in the West Midlands (1%) and 7,595 in the North East (1%).

Phillip Evans, Greenpeace UK’s senior climate campaigner, said: “The economic cost of the storms and floods battering Britain is skyrocketing.

“Our data clearly shows that more and more homes will face rising flood risk due to extreme weather events.

“Already, homes in some areas are becoming uninsurable and in certain cases insurers are abandoning towns, leaving councils to pick up the tab.

“Britain is taking a soaking while oil giants like Shell are raking in billions. It’s time they were made to foot the bill for the climate breakdown fuelled by their dirty industry.”

As of early 2026, the world has seen a long-term global warming increase of approximately 1.2C to 1.4C above pre-industrial levels.

But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates this could reach around 2.7C by 2100 based on the current policies implemented by governments worldwide, with 2.4C by 2080 fitting this mid-range scenario.

In the UK, scientists say climate conditions have become increasingly volatile, with six of the 10 wettest winters on record occurring in the last 20 years.

A separate analysis of Environment Agency data by green group Friends of the Earth released on Wednesday found that one million homes across England – or 2.4 million people – are already at the highest risk of flooding.

If countries fail to reduce planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions, a further 1.89 million people will be pushed into the higher risk category, the research found.

It also highlighted those facing additional social risks from flooding, including 611,000 people who are least able to prepare for flooding in advance, react when it happens, or recover afterwards because of factors such as living on low incomes, renting, disability and lack of insurance.

Ahead of local elections in May, Friends of the Earth said 1.4 million people living in areas facing the gravest flood risks will have the chance to vote.

The campaigners said they have written to all political parties to urge them to adopt policies that make polluting industries and the super rich pay for the emissions fuelling the carbon crisis to help fund flood defences and wider climate action.

They called for more funding for local authorities and emergency services to protect people, property and infrastructure from the escalating threats of the climate crisis.

And they urged parties to ensure equal access to affordable insurance that includes flooding coverage for those in the most vulnerable situations.

Mike Childs, head of policy, science and research at Friends of the Earth, said: “We need to protect people from flooding now, while also investing in our futures through smart, green policies that cut emissions, ramp up homegrown renewables to bring down our bills and boost energy security, create jobs and, ultimately, help prevent the worst of climate breakdown.”

Kamran Mallick, chief executive at Disability Rights UK and a wheelchair user who has experienced severe flooding, said: “The people who get forgotten are always the ones whose voices, understanding and lived experience are missing in decision-making conversations.”

Steve Wright, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, said: “Firefighters are the only professionals trained and equipped to tackle these emergencies, yet the very services the public relies on are being stripped back by relentless cuts.”