A key week of Ukraine diplomacy ahead: But are there really grounds for hope?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian chief negotiator Andriy Yermak said “good progress” had been made at peace talks so far, as ITV News Correspondent Robert Moore reports

There is every reason to be mightily confused by the frantic Ukraine diplomacy that is underway.

In fact, many of the moves that played out over the weekend appear to have baffled the negotiators themselves.

Firstly, the very origins of the 28-point peace plan are disputed.

Was it really a Russian proposal that the US adopted as its own? Or an American idea that the Kremlin quickly leaked because it was so favourable to Russia that it would infuriate the Ukrainians and the Europeans?

Secondly, the chief US negotiator at the Geneva talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said there has been major progress.

But he failed to provide any details at all, leaving everyone confused about which plan was actually being considered.

Thirdly, if the European counter-proposal is to be taken seriously, with its talk of possible Nato membership for Ukraine and using Moscow’s frozen assets for reconstruction, it will surely be rejected by Russia. Then we are back to square one.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he thought the US proposal might take into account the “Ukrainian vision” after meetings began. / Credit: AP

And yet there is some reason to believe the optimism expressed by the American side is partly justified. After all, what is the alternative to a diplomatic outcome and a painful peace?

There is a stalemate on the battlefield. After nearly four years of fighting, and with another winter approaching, territorial gains are incremental.

By next spring, the Ukraine war will have lasted longer than World War One.

As US Senator Eric Schmitt pointed out on Sunday, the Europeans can express shock at the peace plan, but do they really believe yet another round of sanctions, or another tranche of weapons, or more cash for Ukraine, will make a difference? He accused critics of the Trump proposal of living in a fantasy world.

US President Donald Trump railed against Kyiv on social media, accusing its leaders of showing “zero gratitude” for his country’s efforts. / Credit: AP

This will be a critical week for diplomacy.

Two questions are central to any prospects of success: has Russia retreated from its maximalist demands, and will Ukrainian society be able to accept major territorial losses?

This has become the most challenging European crisis to resolve since 1945.

The Geneva talks saw progress, but with President Trump once again talking of Ukrainian ingratitude, the real pain for Kyiv may have only just begun.