Insight: Is Storm Amy set to bring a wet and wild start to October?

October could arrive with a real bang if current weather models are anything to go by, with signs pointing to a stormy end to the week.

In recent days, the models have been spinning up a tightly packed area of low pressure out in the Atlantic – the kind meteorologists call “dartboard lows” because of their distinctive bullseye-like appearance on pressure charts. These intense systems can really pack a punch, and if this one develops as expected, it could bring the potential for damaging winds.

While there’s fairly good agreement that a storm system will form later this week, there’s much less certainty about its exact track. Some models keep it well to the north of Scotland, while others take it across Wales and England – a difference that would dramatically change where the strongest winds are felt. At the moment, the most likely scenario has the system passing over the north of the UK, where the most severe winds would be expected.

If this storm does develop and is named, we could be talking about Storm Amy in the coming days. But pinpointing exactly where the worst of the weather will hit remains tricky until future model runs firm up the track.

Ahead of any potential storm, heavy rain is expected, bringing a risk of flooding, especially on Thursday and Friday. Some models are indicating the potential for up to 150mm of rain in parts of the west Highlands – around three weeks’ worth of rain in just a few days. Unsurprisingly, that’s exceptionally wet and could lead to some localised impacts.

The good news is that once this unsettled spell passes, the models suggest conditions may calm down again towards the end of next week, with colder nights and brighter, sunnier days making a return.