Sean Batty: Summer outlook points to greater heatwave potential

Monday marks the first day of meteorological summer, and we’re now just three weeks away from the official start of the season, which arrives with the solstice on June 21.

After the exceptional spell of heat that swept across the UK just last week, many of you may be wondering when the next period of settled, warm weather will arrive.

On May 25, Scotland recorded its highest temperature of the year so far, with Floors Castle in the Borders reaching 28C. Just a few days later, Kinloss, Kinlochewe and Achnagart in the Highlands all climbed to 27C.

Let’s take a look at the latest trends and have a sneak peek at what the rest of summer could have in store.

How long until warm weather returns?

As always, we monitor a wide range of weather models to help build a picture of what may lie ahead.

These models generate hundreds of possible scenarios, but by analysing them collectively, we can identify broader trends.

At the moment, the overall picture looks rather uninspiring for the next couple of weeks.

However, that average is being dragged down by a handful of more pessimistic solutions that suggest some notably cool days during the middle of June.

Encouragingly, there are slightly more models indicating a warmer spell developing around the second weekend in June (13/14), with temperatures once again exceeding 20C in many areas.

If that trend continues, it looks as though we’ll need to wait until the end of next week for a realistic chance of a return to genuinely warm conditions.

Looking further ahead, the longer-range signals continue to point towards warmer and more settled weather becoming increasingly likely from the middle to latter part of June.

As things stand, the second half of the month appears most likely to deliver the best of the early summer weather.

What will the weather in July and August be like?

Beyond that, the outlook for July and August generally favours temperatures above the seasonal average, with an increased likelihood of hot weather compared to usual.

However, there is also a signal for above-average rainfall across parts of the UK, which complicates the forecast.

Most seasonal models favour higher-than-normal pressure over the UK during the summer months, particularly across Scotland.

If that pattern develops, it is possible that the wetter signal could be focused further south, with low-pressure systems tracking into southern parts of the UK or across continental Europe.

While seasonal forecasts are no good for planning a picnic on August 10, there are certainly reasons to be optimistic if you’re hoping for a warm summer ahead.