Sean Batty: As the school holidays slip away, will summer ever arrive in Scotland?

So far, there’s been a few days here and there that have felt like summer, but overall, it still feels like it hasn’t fully started yet. As the school holidays slip away, we continue to wait – will it ever truly arrive?

Traditionally, the warmest weeks are the last week of July and the first week of August, so there’s still hope to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

One way to gauge how summer is going is by noting the first date in July when temperatures reach or exceed 25°C somewhere in Scotland. We’ve hit 25C every July since 2011, and that’s generally achieved within the first two weeks of the month, although we had to wait until July 22 in 2019.

We may get close to 25C early next week in a few spots, but if it’s not achieved by midweek we’re likely to have to wait until later in the month, which means it could potentially be the longest wait for it in over a decade.

This follows a June that was cooler than average, especially compared to June 2023, the warmest on record for the UK.

In the Atlantic, just west of the UK and Ireland, sea surface temperatures have started to lower, contrasting with global trends. Around the Azores, waters are 5-7 degrees warmer than average, while near Ireland, they’re one degree cooler. Near Newfoundland, sea temperatures are nearly eight degrees above normal – top end of extreme!

This extreme warmth is partly driven by high pressure in the North Atlantic, leading to light winds and less mixing of water layers, thus warming the surface. This high pressure has pushed the jet stream further north, contributing to cooler conditions on this side of the Atlantic.

The heat in the Atlantic could be a concern for the hurricane season with more powerful storms possible – and we’ve already seen this with the earliest recorded category five hurricane in the Atlantic juts a few weeks ago. This could also mean more powerful storms for us in the autumn – something we’ll need to watch.

Coming back to summer, will we ever hit 25°C this July? While it should happen at some point in the next several weeks, it might take a while. There’s a chance early next week in the north of the country, but if not, the wait continues until later in the month.

As for the rest of summer, there’s no strong signal for long-lasting summery weather patterns in the next few weeks, which will be the bulk of the school holidays gone.

Longer-term indicators for August look bland, showing no clear signals for any particular conditions. There are a few subtly hints of higher pressure from some models in August and September so it’s possible we could see something more settled and warmer later in the season.

So, while the start of summer has been disappointing, don’t lose hope yet—it might just be a slow starter…