Weather insight: 'Pest from the west' will be disruptive for Scotland amid Met Office yellow warning for wind

When the Met Office issues a weather warning five days in advance, it’s a sign that we should be aware and keep an eye out for what’s on the horizon.

In the past hour, a yellow weather warning for wind has been issued for parts of Perth and Kinross, Stirling, Moray, the Highlands, Orkney, Dumfries and Galloway, Argyll and Bute, Glasgow, Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, Lanarkshire, and Dunbartonshire.

This warning comes into effect on Friday at midnight and runs until midday on Saturday. Inland, gusts could reach 50-60mph, and around western coastal parts, gusts could reach 70-80mph.

Because this warning has been issued so far in advance, it will likely be updated over the coming days as things become clearer and more confidence is gained. Therefore, it is advised that we keep an eye on the Met Office website and our STV forecasts throughout the week.

What is causing the strong winds, and why do we have such advanced concerns?

It’s all thanks to a very deep area of low pressure that develops quickly on Thursday thanks to a very strong jet stream across the Atlantic forcing it quickly towards the UK.

There’s a very tight squeeze of the isobars around this low pressure, which indicates very strong winds. Along with this, there is a spell of very wet weather, including heavy rain and snowfall in the Highlands.

This area of low pressure has yet to develop and likely won’t until Thursday. It’s not likely to be a record-breaking deep low-pressure system for Scottish standards, but it will be impactful and disruptive. So, it’s not quite a “beast from the east,” more like a “pest from the west”.

At the moment, multiple routes are predicted for the low pressure to take, but the most likely track will be up the western side of Scotland, bringing with it strong winds and heavy rain initially followed by frequent blustery showers.

Of course, this is five days away, so there is still a lot of uncertainty, but over the coming days, confidence will grow, and it may be that either the Met Office or Met Éireann will name it a storm.