You may have heard that a big autumn warmup is on the way this weekend, but only for those in England and Wales, with temperatures expected to hit the mid-20s.
In contrast, Scotland will sit on the boundary between the heat to the south and colder air to the north.
This means some parts of the Highlands on Saturday may be around 9C, while the Midlands and southern England could be about 16 degrees warmer.
While Scotland lags way behind in temperature this weekend, the boundary between the air masses will be marked by a line of heavy rain, which will spend most of Saturday waving across the mainland.
This is likely to lead to flooding in some parts of the country, in particular central areas and the Highlands.
An amber weather warning has been issued for the south and east Highlands, stretching down to Clackmannanshire, North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and Inverclyde where theres a risk of 80-100mm of rain falling through Saturday and into Sunday morning.
This amounts to about two to three weeks worth of rain in some spots, and given the time of year when many drains are blocked by soil, leaves and pine needles this will only exacerbate the flood risk.
I’d say places such as Crieff, Callander, Killin, Tyndrum, Aberfoyle, Fintry, Pitlochry, Lochwinnoch and Dunbarton are at highest risk of some issues on Saturday afternoon.
Some computer models are forecasting more extreme rainfall which could amount to as much as 180mm in the wettest spots, although this is more likley in the hillier parts of the amber region such as the Trossachs and Arrochar, although this rainfall of course will feed into rivers which head into more built up areas and will need monitored.
Anyone with concerns during this rainfall event should look to SEPA’s Floodline website or dial 0345 988 1188 for the latest information.
By Sunday the worst of the rain is expected to move north east with drier and brighter conditions developing in the south along with slightly warmer conditions with a high of 18-19C possible in Dumfries and Galloway.
At this stage there’s no sign of any prolonged settled spells in the coming weeks with further spells of wind and rain more likley.
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