Sean Batty Insight: Temperatures could reach 30C in Scotland in June as heatwave arrives

As temperatures soar over the next few days, I think it’s quite possible we’ll get very close to 30C – or even break through that big milestone. But how unusual is that?

Well, yes, it’s definitely rare to hit 30C in Scotland, and even rarer this early in the season. What’s driving it? Much warmer air than usual is being drawn up from the south – the same plume that’s pushed parts of France and Spain close to 40C recently, which is also exceptionally hot for this time of year.

Where are we most likely to reach 30C in the next few days?

On Friday I’d say Deeside and the Borders have a decent chance, with Perth and surrounding areas also in the mix.

On Saturday it’s most likely in East Lothian and the Borders.

What’s the earliest Scotland has reached 30C?

Although I say mid-June might be early for this kind of heat, it’s actually not the earliest it’s ever happened. That record goes to May 25, 2012, when Inverailort in the Highlands hit 30.9C. Interestingly, that was also the highest temperature recorded that entire year – no day in summer managed to beat it!

How often do we reach 30C in Scotland?

Looking at the past two decades, Scotland has only seen 30C or higher in nine of the last 20 years. Going out even further, it’s happened in just 23 years since 1940. So statistically, we only reach 30C about once every four years – making it quite a rare event.

What’s Scotland’s all-time temperature record?

That was only recently – in July 2022, when Charterhall in the Borders recorded a blistering 34.8C. Before that, the record had stood for almost 20 years, with 33C reached back in 2003.

Could we break that record in the next few days?

Not during this current hot spell. But to be pushing 30C this early in June is impressive. And if we get another burst or two of heat over the next nine weeks – which seems very likely – then a new record isn’t out of the question. Although, keep in mind it took over 20 years to beat the previous record.

Records that could go…

While daytime temperature records aren’t likely to fall during this spell, it’s a different story overnight. Some local nighttime records could be under threat, particularly on Friday night, when temperatures may struggle to drop below the high teens – or even stay in the low 20s well into the night across Argyll and Bute and the Central Belt. It could be one of the warmest June nights on record for some parts of the country.

Will Scotland ever hit 40C?

We’ve already seen it in England – 40.3C in Lincolnshire in 2022, less than 200 miles from the Scottish border. Back in the early 2000s, if you’d said that would happen, most people would’ve thought you were talking about Turkey, not the UK!

So, is 40C in Scotland really that far-fetched? Honestly, I’d say never say never – that’s one thing meteorology has taught me. But realistically, it’s still unlikely in our lifetimes.

What’s more plausible is seeing temperatures over 35C within the next decade, and mid-30s becoming more common by the 2050s as our climate continues to warm.

Who knows – maybe one day, someone will dig up this article and use it to look back at a time when 40C in Scotland seemed almost impossible.

How long will this heat last?

Things will start to freshen up a bit from the west by the end of the weekend. That said, the mid-20s could return again mid-next week, especially across the north and east – so the warmth’s not quite done yet.