I don’t normally stick my neck on the line, but I feel pretty confident that something is brewing by way of our first proper cold and wintry spell of weather this season.
In forecasting we use various computer models to help drive out thoughts for the coming days and week, and they can often all show very different scenarios and this is what causes uncertainty in forecasts, and is also the reason that it’s impossible to forecast details more than a week in advance. That being said, when the computer models start to agree on a scenario, we become more confident that they’re starting to show a trend.
Now, with that in mind, after an unsettled week this week with further spells of wind and rain, the models are hinting at low pressure clearing east followed on by a high pressure system extending into the Arctic. This would allow a cold northerly air flow to develop across the UK which could bring a spell of snow to the north of the country followed by a more settled spell with clear skies which is the sort of scenario which can lead to very cold nights.
But before I get too carried away, in true forecaster style and my get-out, is that meteorology is not an exact science, and while there’s growing confidence in models for a cold plunge later next week, sometimes models can lead us merrily down a garden path for the whole idea to then be binned because of an unforeseen storm in the Atlantic which scuppers the whole thing.
Some would say don’t say anything until we get closer to the time as it could all change, but I’ve decided to let you know my thoughts as it could bring the first snow of the season to some parts of the country. Plus I’m sure I’m not the only one who likes the idea of something a bit more wintry as the Christmas decorating and card writing season draws closer.
So, while things may change, it might be worth checking where that sledge is if you’re in the north of the country.
More to follow… Maybe…
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