Scotland's prison population could rise by nearly 1,000 inmates by next summer

Scotland’s prison population could rise by nearly 1,000 inmates by next summer, according to new Scottish Government projections.

Figures released on Thursday suggest the prison population could reach a high of 9,450 by June 2027. The current design capacity of the prison estate is 7,805.

This is despite the Scottish Government’s early-release scheme to ease overcrowding, under which hundreds of prisoners have been freed before the end of their sentences since November 2025.

The number of people serving sentences is expected to rise, while the remand population could either increase or decrease depending on how quickly cases progress through the courts.

‘Further action needed’

Justice secretary Neil Gray said that despite the Scottish Government having increased prison capacity by 640 over the past three years and building two new prisons, “further action was needed”.

He said: “Like many countries, Scotland has seen a sustained rise in its prison population, placing significant pressure across the prison estate. Prison staff continue to show exceptional professionalism, resilience and commitment in very challenging circumstances, and I am grateful for the vital work they do every day.

“To ease the pressure, we have maximised capacity across the prison estate by 640 over the past three years, we are building two new prisons, and we are increasing investment in community justice.

“Further action is needed, which is why in June I set out proposals to achieve a sustainable prison population while maintaining public protection and reducing future offending.

“The planned reforms build on the recommendations of the independent Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission, which recognise that Scotland must rethink its approach to community sentencing and imprisonment.

“Alongside expansion of the prison estate, they will strike the right balance across custodial sentences, community sentencing and the need to robustly protect victims and the public. Responses to the consultation are being considered to inform next steps.”

‘Unsustainable rise and safety risk’

The new figures come as prison officers urged the Scottish Government and the Scottish Prison Service (SPS) to address overcrowding, staff shortages and mounting pressures across the prison estate.

The Prison Officers’ Association (POA) is currently holding its annual conference in Peebles, with the prison crisis expected to dominate discussions.

The union said Scotland’s rising prison population has placed increasing pressure on prison facilities and the staff responsible for running them, warning that officers are facing significant physical and mental strain.

Earlier in October, inspectors highlighted ongoing inadequacies at HMP Barlinnie, describing the Glasgow jail as an ageing institution amid continued overcrowding across the prison estate.

Prisoners at Scotland’s largest jail were left without running water for four nights after a leak was identified within the estate on October 8.

Although the water supply was restored, it has had to be temporarily isolated at various points to allow repairs to take place, resulting in further disruption.

‘Shocking and depressing’

Responding to the release of the Scottish Government’s latest prisoner projections, Phil Fairlie, assistant secretary of the Prison Officers’ Association, said: “These projections are both shocking and depressing but they will come as no surprise to Scotland’s Prison Officers.

“From the outset, the POA said that the Early Release Scheme would only provide temporary relief and that the spaces freed up would immediately be filled by newly convicted prisoners. That is exactly what has happened, and now the government is projecting that in a year’s time, Scotland will have a prison population with almost 1,000 more prisoners than we have at present. This is unsustainable and is heaping unbearable pressure on our members.

“I know the Scottish Government have consulted on future strategies for reducing prisoner populations, but we quite simply cannot wait for that to transpire sometime off in the distant future.

“I honestly think if these projections are accurate, the prison service must reach the point of having to say, “The doors are shut, we simply cannot take any more and continue to pretend that it is safe for anyone inside our prisons.”

“We need urgent action to address the lack of prison accommodation and the understaffing of the prison estate. We must also see vastly improved support for our members who are on the frontline of this crisis and working under intolerable pressure.

“In the longer term, if we are to reduce the number of people we send to prison, we have to address the root causes of offending – poverty, addiction, poor mental health, alienation, and hopelessness.”

The Scottish Prison Service (SPS) said the “unsustainable” rise in inmates is posing a safety risk to the establishments.

A spokesperson said: “As we have previously made clear, the size and complexity of the prison population is unsustainable and poses a significant risk to the safety of both those living and working in our establishments.

“We need action now to tackle overcrowding, to help us keep people safe, support rehabilitation, reduce reoffending, and help build the safer Scotland we all want to see.”