Scotland’s population projected to grow to 5.8m by mid 2047

Scotland’s population is projected to grow to 5.8 million people by the middle of 2047 with the increase driven by migration, according to a study.

National Records of Scotland (NRS) statisticians project the population will increase by 4.4% in the 10 years from mid-2022, when it was 5.4 million, to 5.7 million and it will increase by 6.2% to 5.8 million by mid-2047.

The NRS report found that based on recent trends, people moving to Scotland would continue to fuel population increase.

It found that without migration, Scotland’s population would fall as deaths are projected to continue to outnumber births.

Scotland’s population is also projected to age over the next two decades.

NRS head of population and migration statistics, Andrew White, said: “The country has an aging population, and this is projected to continue.

“It is projected that there will be around one third of a million more people aged 75 and older by mid-2047, as the 1960s baby boom generation gets older.

“Our projections suggest that, by the middle of 2047, people of working age will make up 64% of the population, just a little less than now.

“In the same time period, the number of young people aged zero to 15 is projected to fall by 9% or almost 80,000 people. The number aged 16 to 29 is projected to fall by 6% or more than 57,000 people.”

The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 341,300 over the years to mid-2047.

The population of the UK as a whole is projected to grow at a faster rate than Scotland.

By mid-2047 it’s projected to be 76.6 million, up 13.2% on the 2022 figure.

According to these figures Scotland’s share of the UK population could fall from 8.1% to 7.6% in the same time period.

Scotland’s equalities minister, Kaukab Stewart, said: “These projections suggest that Scotland will continue to be an attractive country for people to live, work, study and settle in. We welcome people from around the world and other parts of the UK who want to build their lives here.

“While our population is projected to continue aging, all projected growth will come from inward migration. This shows just how crucial migrants are to ensuring Scotland has a greater proportion of people of working age to fill skills gaps, sustain public services, contribute to communities, and grow the economy.

“To enable us to address our demographic challenges, migration policies must be tailored to Scotland’s distinct needs.

“We will continue to press the UK Government on introducing a Scottish graduate visa to help us retain capable people from around the world, and to work with us on a rural visa pilot tailored to the needs of our rural and island communities.

“Within our devolved powers, we are supporting communities to retain and attract people as far as possible.

“We have launched Scotland’s Migration Service to help individuals and businesses navigate the immigration system, while our addressing depopulation action plan is supporting local action to help communities facing population decline.”

Population projections are based on past trends and assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration and are not intended as a forecast or prediction.

The UK Government has been asked for comment.