Scotland could slash extreme homelessness by nearly half in two years – report

Scotland could cut the most extreme homelessness by nearly half within just the next two years, a study has found.

The number of Scots facing the worst forms of homelessness could be cut by 47% by 2028 if ministers made the right interventions, analysis by Heriot-Watt University for Crisis Scotland found.

The researchers said three-quarters of the reduction could be delivered with powers already held by the Scottish Government.

The Homelessness Monitor: Scotland 2026 warned Scotland’s current rate of core homelessness is set to remain broadly the same until 2041, with around 1,000 people estimated to be sleeping rough every night and more than 19,000 households in temporary accommodation.

The report modelled the impact of several different policy interventions on homelessness up to 2041. It found that if current powers were fully used, core homelessness would fall from around 22,800 households to 12,150 by 2028.

By 2031, temporary accommodation could fall by 88%, hostel use by 66% and rough sleeping by 63%.

The single most effective lever is allocating up to one in five social lets to people in the worst forms of homelessness (19%), followed by full delivery of the prevention duties in the Housing (Scotland) Act 2025 (13%) and the trebling of the Housing First provision (5%).

Levers held at Westminster include a larger benefit package (9%), destitution and universal credit measures (5%) and restoring Local Housing Allowance to the 30th percentile of local rents (nearly 6%).

Crisis Scotland has called on the Scottish Government to publish a costed delivery plan for the measures identified in the study.

Maeve McGoldrick, head of policy and communications at the charity, said: “This report makes it clear that ending homelessness for everyone is down to political choices. We can make significant strides towards this goal in a short space of time, if the will is there.

“We cannot continue to see 1,000 people sleeping rough on an average night, record numbers stuck in temporary accommodation for eight months at a time, and councils breaching the law on B&B stays 8,000 times and turning people away 4,900 times in a single quarter, because they have nowhere to put them. That is the system as it stands.

“In one path, the worst forms of homelessness are halved within the next five years, rough sleeping is cut by nearly two-thirds and unsuitable temporary accommodation is all but ended. In the other, we hold the current course and the numbers remain where they are today, come 2040.

“This is not a future bill to be passed or a decision for Westminster. It is for the Scottish Government to use the powers it already has, and to make a success of the world-leading prevention framework already in law.

“So our ask of the Scottish Government is this: prioritise delivering the policy levers in this report, and fully fund the prevention Ask and Act duties in the upcoming budget.”

McGoldrick said homelessness should be “rare, brief and never repeated”, and added: “This research shows us what that would take.”

Professor Beth Watts-Cobbe of Heriot-Watt University, the report’s lead author, said: “Some of the largest contributions to reducing homelessness come from measures within the control of local authorities, housing associations and the Scottish Government, rather than the UK Government.

“With no change to current policy, our projections show core homelessness in Scotland essentially flat for the next 15 years. Inaction is not neutral. It is a decision, and an outcome we can and should avoid.”

The Scottish Government has been approached for comment.