Scotland braced for first cold plunge of autumn with frosts and risk of snow

It looks like Scotland will get its first real taste of colder air in the last week of October – just after the clocks change from British Summer Time back to Greenwich Mean Time on Sunday, October 26.

Over the past few days, I’ve been keeping an eye on the weather models, and with each new run, there has been growing agreement that a cooldown is on the way.

Widespread frosts are looking likely, and some models even suggest that temperatures around 5,000ft could drop to about -8°C across Shetland next weekend.

Now, you might be wondering – what does the temperature at 5,000ft have to do with us who don’t live on a mountain? Well, meteorologists use this level to gauge how cold an air mass is and whether there’s a chance of snow surviving a fall from the cold air above us to the more populated areas lower down.

So, what’s the verdict?

With a potential Arctic air flow at the end of next week and 5,000ft temperatures ranging from -4°C to -8°C across Scotland, I’d say there’s a decent chance of something wintry – especially for the Northern Isles and some of the higher villages in the north of the mainland in the days leading up to Halloween.

Of course, weather forecasting is never that straightforward. While some models show a colder pattern developing, others hint at something much milder at the same time.

That’s where my job comes in – to try to see through the noise and figure out which scenario is most likely. Right now, the momentum is with the colder models, so a chilly spell looks the more probable outcome… but keep that caveat in mind!

Now, before anyone says “It’s autumn!” – yes, this is perfectly normal for late October. Colder spells (and even some snow in some spots) aren’t unusual at this time of year. In fact, parts of the Central Belt even saw snow around Halloween in 2018 – although that’s very rare that far south. It’s not so unusual, however, for Shetland, Orkney or Caithness, where early-season wintry showers are more of a familiar sight.

So while it’s nothing out of the ordinary, it would be Scotland’s first proper cold spell since spring.

How cold could it get? Well, if the colder scenarios play out, I wouldn’t rule out temperatures around or slightly below -5C in the Highlands, with towns and cities seeing their first frosts of the season.

Most of us won’t see snow this time, but this colder spell is a clear sign that we’ve turned the corner into the cooler half of the year – and of course Christmas is just ten weeks away!