Risk of flooding as heavy rain batters Scotland for two days ahead of big freeze

There is a risk of flooding on Scotland’s roads this week from heavy rain before temperatures plummet later this month.

A yellow Met Office weather alert for rain in Tayside, Fife, Grampian and the Highlands comes into effect at 6pm on Wednesday and will run until shortly before midnight on Friday.

Between 30 and 60mm of rainfall is likely to fall inland, with as much as 80-120 mm possible over high ground. On high ground, rain was fall as snow.

Due to recent rain and snow thawing, some areas may experience flooding, causing delays to public transport and cutting off some rural communities.

Scotland

Scotland to be battered with days of heavy rain before big freeze arrives

The Met Office has issued a yellow weather alert for rain in Tayside, Fife, Grampian and the Highlands.

The Met Office said there is a small chance businesses and homes may be flooded, and a small risk to life due to possible flooding and fast-flowing water.

Drivers have been warned to take care, and the Met Office also said power cuts are possible due to adverse weather.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has issued three red flood alerts for Churchill Barriers in Orkney, Finavon and Tannadice, and Kinnard/Bridge of Don in Dundee and Angus.

Six further amber flood alerts have been issued for parts of the north east and central Scotland.

ScotRail has speed restrictions in place for its Perth to Inverness route from 6pm on Wednesday until 9.30am on Saturday, and its Aberdeen to Inverness routes from 12.01am on Thursday until 12pm on Friday.

Insight

Scotland to freeze next week: How low could temperatures go?

Sean Batty

Meanwhile, ferry operator CalMac has cancelled all of its Oban-Coll-Tiree services on Thursday, and says some of its other services may be subject to cancellations or delays at short notice, due to adverse weather conditions.

Areas impacted by yellow weather warning:

Angus
Dundee
Fife
Perth and Kinross
Stirling
Aberdeen
Aberdeenshire
Moray
Highland

Wintry conditions to return

The significant rainfall could be followed by a plummet in temperature from around Burns Day, bringing a renewed risk of icy conditions and snow that could persist into February.

The cold spell at the start of January arrived from the north, but this time the air looks set to come from the east – which can often be even colder.

Insight Sean Batty STV weather presenter

I know whenever I write stories like this, some people respond with “it’s just winter,” and of course, that’s true.

However, it’s been several years since we’ve experienced such a prolonged period of colder-than-average conditions, and it’s relatively rare to see two notable cold spells within the same month.

The kind of conditions we’ve seen this January are now around half as likely as they would have been in the past.

Long-range forecasting is about identifying trends across many computer models rather than focusing on any single outcome.

Some runs show sub-zero daytime temperatures and lows of around –8C in Glasgow by the end of January, while others point to much milder conditions, with highs near 8C and lows of 6C.

This widespread is exactly why caution is needed when looking more than a week ahead.

However, when those extremes are stripped out, the overall trend indicates a noticeable drop in temperatures over the coming week.

This is also why claims circulating on social media about specific conditions weeks in advance should be taken with a very large pinch of salt – they usually rely on cherry-picking one model from many possible scenarios.

Another unusual feature is the presence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia, something that has been far less common in recent winters but was a more familiar pattern during the 1980s.

I’ve just returned from a conference in Andorra, where one of the speakers was Dr Paul Williams from the University of Reading.

He discussed how the jet stream is changing in a warming world, with evidence suggesting it may be slowing and becoming more meandering at lower levels.

This can encourage more “blocking” patterns in the atmosphere – the setups that can bring colder spells in winters and hotter conditions in summers.

It’s important to stress, though, that even when we talk about colder conditions today, they tend not to be as severe as those experienced a few decades ago, because global temperatures overall have risen.