Just transition progress ‘falling short’, report warns

Scotland’s just transition progress is “falling short of what is needed”, a report has warned.

The No Time To Lose report from Scotland’s Just Transition Commission (JTC) said the current trajectory on the path to net zero “exposes us to further repeats” of unplanned closures such as Grangemouth and Mossmorran.

It also said “there is no just path to net zero through deindustrialisation”, and warned: “Our current path risks an economy with minimal manufacturing, an overreliance on imports, and the further dwindling of the already diminished industrial base and the skilled workforce we need to deliver a prosperous transition.”

Jake Molloy, a member of the commission and long-time representative of offshore energy workers, shared concerns the number of redundancies in the oil and gas sector is increasing.

He said: “Every other month we hear of another task force, work group, forum, or board being established to look at jobs and skills as part of transition. Despite this, the number of redundancies continues to increase across the oil and gas workforce and communities.

“The time for talking is over, it was over long ago. Only actions and a credible industrial plan can address the fact there is nothing ‘just’ about the transition that is being imposed on oil and gas workers and communities.”

The commission says a just transition is still achievable, but only if there is “significant acceleration of progress”.

The report is calling for a joint Scottish and UK government plan for the North Sea workforce, including people working in support roles such as catering.

It also encourages action to give communities a stake and say in forestry development as Scotland ramps up tree-planting, along with action to make the uptake of electric vehicles fairer to avoid a scenario where the transition in transport mainly benefits wealthier households with driveways.

In October, First Minister John Swinney confirmed at the commission’s just transition summit that he intends to renew the commission for the next Holyrood parliamentary term.

Professor Dave Reay, co-chair of the commission and chairman in carbon management and education at the University of Edinburgh, said: “The commission has been all over Scotland and spoken to over 900 people and all kinds of organisations, from crofters to global asset managers, oil majors to family-run fishing firms.

“Our message today is clear: we can still make this transition in a way that truly benefits Scotland’s people and places.

“But right now we are not on track. We’ve heard it in church halls, on ferries between remote islands, on buses in Dundee, at major industrial sites and vast peat bogs. Government needs to do much more. That starts by implementing the realistic and practical recommendations in today’s report.”

Climate Action Secretary Gillian Martin said: “I am grateful for the work of the Just Transition Commission over the course of its term, and I welcome the fact this report recognises some of the key actions we have already taken to achieve net zero in a way that distributes the costs and benefits fairly.

“This includes our Just Transition Fund for the north east and Moray; the Just Transition Plan and £25 million Fund for Grangemouth; £9 million of support recently announced for Mossmorran; removing peak rail fares for good; and our schemes to tackle fuel poverty.

“We agree that ‘business as usual’ is not an option. That is why we have published a draft Climate Change Plan with over 150 actions to reduce emissions and, crucially, support people as our country transitions to net zero.

“It is the first climate plan in the UK to set out the costs and benefits of policies in this level of detail, and the first anywhere that will track just transition progress at a national level – something the JTC has welcomed.

“We will carefully consider the commission’s recommendations as we prepare to deliver the final Climate Change Plan for Scotland.”