I’m back, I’ve just bought a new fleece, and that means it’s time to get ready for some very cold weather!
I said in my article last week that colder conditions looked likely to develop this week and it could end up being something quite significant if everything lined up. Well it is lining up…
We’ve gone from incredibly mild conditions on Wednesday with Aberdeenshire hitting the mid-teens, but now the chill is starting to move in, and by Saturday most areas will be lucky to be a few degrees above freezing – so a massive 10C drop in a few days.
We’re looking at some extremely cold nights on Friday and Saturday night with temperatures reaching lows of -8C in the Highlands.
On Sunday slightly less cold air will move into the far west with temperatures recovering to around 9-10C by the end of the day, but it’s a few days later that’s really peaking interest.
Most models are starting to show signs of high pressure building across Greenland and into Scandinavia, and when this happens cold air starts to drain out of the Arctic and heads for Scotland. The reason this is so interesting as a meteorologist is that it doesn’t happen very often and it can also be very stubborn to move once we get this sort of setup.
The charts currently have a very 2010-esque look to them, but you might be thinking – what does that mean? Well remember, that was the November and December that Scotland went into a deep freeze and some motorways were closed for a few days due to snowfall.
Now, before I get too carried away, global drivers (weather events happening around the globe) are different to that extreme period in 2010 and they favour more unsettled milder conditions for the UK, but the charts at the moment are showing quite the opposite at the moment.
No two events are ever the same, and while it’s looking odds-on for much colder conditions to be established later next week and into the start of December putting any detail on snowfall at this stage is tricky. That being said, given that it’s likely we’ll end up in an east to north easterly air flow, the most likely places I’d say for any snowfall at this stage would be Aberdeenshire, Fife, Edinburgh and the Borders.
So while detail is difficult it’s time to dig out the hat and scarf, and maybe the sledge – just in time for the festivities!
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