Government unlikely to meet 2030 target on reducing car use, auditors warn

The Scottish Government has made minimal progress and is unlikely to meet its climate change target of reducing all car use, a highly critical report from auditors has said.

The assessment comes despite John Swinney’s assurance last year that the 2030 target for reducing Scotland’s car kilometres by 20% can still be met.

Audit Scotland and the Accounts Commission said there has been a lack of leadership and no clear plan for meeting the “ambitious and challenging” target.

Car use has rebounded since the pandemic and use of public transport has decreased, the report said, while spending on active travel has not necessarily impacted car use.

The report said: “A lack of leadership has resulted in minimal progress against the demanding policy intention.

“It is not clear if the Scottish Government remains committed to the target as key documents remain in draft form, there is no costed delivery plan or measurable milestones, and arrangements for monitoring and scrutinising progress are insufficient.”

Domestic transport is the largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland, accounting for 28% of all emissions.

In 2022, the Government said its efforts to reduce car use by 20% against the 2019 baseline were “stepping up a gear”.

Last year the Government axed its trial of scrapping peak rail fares, which was meant to encourage people to use public transport rather than cars, after saying the £40m price tag could not be justified.

Following this decision in August, Mr Swinney said he believed the 2030 target could still be met, telling the PA news agency it “obviously requires changes in behaviour from members of the public”.

He said achieving this was “not focused simply on one particular policy intervention”.

In November, the Scottish Parliament passed legislation to remove the interim emissions reduction target for 2030, after experts said it was no longer credible.

Audit Scotland said in order to achieve the car kilometre target, car traffic levels will need to decrease by 7.3 billion kilometres to 29.3 billion.

The last time car use was at this level was 1994.

The report says policies which attempt to meet the target have not been joined up and decisions which could significantly discourage car use will be “difficult and potentially unpopular”.

Auditor General Stephen Boyle said: “The Scottish Government set an ambitious and very challenging target to reduce car use by 20% by 2030. But there has been a lack of leadership around delivering this goal.

“It’s now unlikely the Government will achieve its ambition, so it needs to be clear how this will affect its wider ambitions to achieve net zero emissions by 2045.”

Ruth MacLeod, a member of the Accounts Commission, said: “All parts of Government need to act to deliver the 2030 car use reduction target. Councils need to set out to what extent they will contribute and how they will measure their progress.

“But they also need clearer guidance and direction from the Scottish Government to agree their role in reducing car use in their area.”

A Transport Scotland spokesperson said: “We welcome Audit Scotland’s Sustainable Transport Report published today and we will consider its recommendations, working collaboratively with COSLA, regional transport and local authority partners – as car reduction is a joint commitment.

“Reducing Scotland’s reliance on cars and encouraging a shift towards public transport and active travel is a crucial step in meeting our climate targets. It also mirrors the thinking which is underway across the world in terms of reducing emissions and creating greener, healthier and more enjoyable environments for people and communities.

“We recognise that Scotland has still got some way to go to transition from private vehicles and towards more sustainable public transport – and cross party support at all levels of government is key.

“The 2025-26 budget invests £263m in sustainable travel, low carbon and climate positive activities to support the switch to zero emission vehicles and promote walking, wheeling and cycling for everyday shorter journeys.”