Damning report finds Scottish Government will fail to meet crucial house building targets

Social and affordable house-building targets set by the Scottish Government will not be met, according to a new economic report.

Exclusive research shared with STV News by the Fraser of Allander Institute suggests the government is on course to miss its pledge to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, falling around 35,000 homes short.

The target would not be reached until late 2036 at the current rate of construction, almost five years behind schedule.

With Scotland in the grip of a housing emergency, the sector says reform is needed if housebuilding is to accelerate and help meet demand.

Industry leaders point to a range of challenges, including high costs, labour shortages, planning delays and funding uncertainty, which they say are slowing the delivery of affordable homes.

The Scottish Government insists it remains committed to its housing targets.

In North Lanarkshire, Trust Housing Association are doing something unusual. They’re building an estate made up entirely of affordable homes, which means they’re priced at a low to moderate level.

Jackie Mcintosh, the association’s chief executive, told STV News the site was years in the making despite the huge demand.

She said: “We’ve only got 48 units at this estate in Bellshill, but it’s been seven years in the making to get to this stage where we are actually completing homes. We were hit with a double whammy of rising costs, interest rates, inflation – costs were beginning to effect viability.”

“Trust essentially paid for the first 16 houses to be built”, Jackie added. “We were then able to allocate those houses, generate the rental income which then helped us to reduce our costs to build the rest of the homes”.

Around 250,000 people are currently waiting for a social home in Scotland.

Now, new research suggests that figure is unlikely to fall anytime soon.

In 2021, the Scottish Government pledged to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032. So far, just over 35,000 have been completed.

Exclusive analysis by the Fraser of Allander Institute suggests that, at the current rate of construction, the target will be missed by around 35,000 homes.

Since the pandemic, the construction sector has faced mounting pressures. The cost of building materials has soared, with a sheet of timber flooring rising from around £8 to £20, while the price of a single brick has increased from 25p to 45p.

Industry leaders say rising costs, alongside wider pressures facing the sector, are slowing the delivery of much-needed affordable homes.

Richard Meade from the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations said: “We need to have proper costed investment and support the development of homes we need.

“The Scottish Government clearly have ambition but won’t meet it if we don’t address these challenges, and without that, not everyone in Scotland will have the safe warm affordable home they deserve.”

The Scottish Government say they’re committed to the target and will consider the report’s findings.

Shirley-Anne Somerville, the cabinet secretary for social justice and housing, said: “This Government is delivering on affordable housing, and we remain committed to our target of delivering 110,000 homes by 2032, which this report states is achievable.

“Latest figures show approvals up 42%, starts increasing by 37% and a 25% rise in new build starts for social sector housing compared to last year..

“Overall, since 2007 we have helped deliver 146,000 affordable homes and Scotland has delivered 45% more affordable homes than England and 69% more than Wales, per head of population.

“However, we recognise the challenging delivery landscape and the need for step change in how we deliver homes. Our record investment of up to £4.9bn over the next four years provides a strong platform and we will continue to work flexibly with partners to deliver more affordable homes.

“Our new agency, More Homes Scotland, will bring simplicity and scale to this work – enhancing delivery and maximising the impact of our investment. We will consider this report’s findings in full.”