Covid-19 deaths could be ‘much worse’ if advice ignored

The death toll from coronavirus in Scotland could be “much worse” than 2000 if people fail to heed warnings to stay at home, a government expert has warned.

National clinical director Jason Leitch spoke out after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said pubs that stay open during the Covid-19 outbreak are putting lives at risk.

Ms Sturgeon said that, while the “vast majority” of bars, restaurants and cafes have complied with instructions from the Scottish Government to close, she had seen suggestions on social media that a “small minority might not be complying”.

My thanks to the vast majority of pubs etc that have complied with @scotgov request to close. I’m seeing some suggestions on here that a small minority might not be complying. If that’s true, make no mistake…lives are at risk as a result. Please do the right thing now.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) March 21, 2020

She insisted: “If that’s true, make no mistake lives are at risk as a result. Please do the right thing now.”

As she spoke out, professor Leitch told the Sunday Mail newspaper: “We really aren’t messing around with this now.

“To protect individuals and society’s vulnerable, we need to make very drastic social distancing and isolation choices.”

The medical expert continued: “The chief scientific adviser in England has said he thinks 20,000 deaths across the UK would be a good outcome.

“In Scotland, that would be about 2000, but the worst-case scenario is much worse than that. People need to take the advice they’re being given very seriously.”

Heeding advice not to go out unless necessary, and to stay away from others could be “the difference between tens of thousands of deaths and the number of around 2000”, he added.

Prof Leitch stressed: “We’ve told the symptomatic and very vulnerable to stay at home. Then we told some other groups – those with diseases, those over 70 and those who are pregnant – to take very seriously the calls to reduce social contact.

“For everyone else, they must socially distance themselves as much as possible – that means no pubs, no clubs, no birthday parties, no Mother’s Day family dinners.

“It’s a horrible thing and none of us have done it lightly but it’s to protect the people that will get this virus because it’s a proper disease.”