Can SNP secure majority as race between Labour and Reform for second tightens?

The SNP is on track to secure a comfortable victory in May’s Holyrood election but the race for second place is too close to call, according to polling released on the last day of campaigning.

The final Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey of 1,255 adults, conducted between May 1 and May 4, shows the SNP is comfortably in the lead on both constituency voting intentions, at 35%, and regional list voting intentions, at 26%.

That would, however, be a weaker performance than at the 2021 election, when the SNP won 48% of the constituency vote and 40% of the regional list vote.

The race for second place on the constituency vote is too close to call, with Labour on 20% and Reform UK on 18%.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives, in second place in 2021, currently trail on 11%, tied with the Liberal Democrats.

On the regional list vote, Reform UK is in second place on 18%.

The Scottish Green Party is close behind on 17%, which, if replicated on polling day would be the party’s strongest ever performance on the regional list.

If turnout is low, this may particularly impact the Scottish Greens, as younger voters – who are typically less likely to turn out on polling day than older voters are – are more likely to say they would cast their regional list vote for the Greens than for any other party.

Labour is in fourth place on the regional list vote, on 15%, while the Tories are in sixth on 10%, behind the Liberal Democrats on 11%.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: “Our final poll of this Holyrood election campaign may dent the SNP’s confidence in achieving its hoped-for majority, since it shows the party’s share of the vote falling back slightly on both constituency and regional votes.

“Meanwhile, the race for second place in voting intentions looks too close to call, with Scottish Labour narrowly ahead of Reform on the constituency vote but Reform outpacing Labour on the regional list vote – where the Greens also appear to be in contention, if they can get their voters to turn out.

“This could be the worst ever performance at a Scottish election for both Labour and the Conservatives if these numbers are replicated on polling day.

“But with one in four voters still saying they may yet change their mind, all the parties still have something to play for in the final day of campaigning.”

Vote switching

Two key factors that may influence the election result are turnout and last-minute vote switching.

On both constituency and regional list votes, a quarter of voters (25% on the constituency vote and 26% on the list) say they may still change their mind before they vote.

Reform UK’s support looks the firmest of any party’s, with 83% of Reform UK voters saying they’ve definitely decided to cast their constituency vote for the party, compared to 76% of SNP voters and 67% of Labour voters.

Tactical voting

Some 15% of those intending to vote for a party say they are doing so to try and keep another party out in their constituency, rather than because it is the party that most represents their views.

The likelihood of tactical voting is highest among those who intend to vote Liberal Democrat, Labour or Conservative and lowest among those who intend to vote for Reform UK.

Levels of likely tactical voting are similar on the regional list, with 14% of likely voters saying they are doing so because the party they support is unlikely to gain additional regional MSPs, so their vote is better used by voting for a different party.