August weather outlook: will the sun return or is summer over?

July has been a real disappointment for most of the country – cooler than usual, wetter than average, and not as sunny. There are a few exceptions such as Shetland, Orkney and Fife which had a little more sun than usual.

Scotland has remained north of the jet stream in July, which has acted as the boundary between the heatwave conditions in the Mediterranean and the cooler more showery weather over us.

After a sweltering May and June, the weather seemed to turn just in time for the schools breaking up for their summer holidays, but the big question is, will summer arrive as they go back?

While there’s no signal from our current computer models for prolonged hot and settled spells to return in August, it does look like it may warm up next week.

There’s a possibility of some more settled weather briefly at the end of next week with temperatures reaching the low 20s, although the mid 20s may be possible in Moray if the wind direction is right.

I expect any settling down next week to be short-lived with a return to more changeable conditions likely.

We’ve seen some unseasonably deep lows cross the country in the last few weeks, and I’d expect this to remain the case in the coming weeks from time to time. We’re also getting to the point of the year where weakening hurricanes in the Atlantic can get steered towards the UK.

This means the remnants of these storms can sweep the UK bringing spells of heavy rain and gale force winds.

We’re only at the start of August, so there’s still plenty of time for warm and sunny conditions – sometimes September and October can throw us a summery lifeline.

The last week in July and the first week in August is traditionally the warmest few weeks of the year with the average peaking. But, if we’re going to reach 30+ degrees again this summer, there’s only a few weeks left for that to be possible.