Will the Rosebank oil field off Shetland be approved?

The Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea has finally been approved after months of speculation.

While the decision has brought relief to communities across Aberdeen, the announcement hasn’t taken all of the heat off the UK Government when it comes to energy.

Attention is turning to the second landmark project in the North Sea: the Rosebank oil field.

Both industry leaders and climate campaigners have set their sights on the next big energy decision facing the government.

Industry hopes this week’s decision on Jackdaw will make greenlighting Rosebank more likely.

But environmental protection groups like Fossil Free London and Uplift are campaigning harder than ever to stop the oil field getting the go-ahead.

The considerations about Rosebank differ from those that applied to Jackdaw, however.

How is Rosebank different to Jackdaw?

Rosebank is an oil field; Jackdaw will primarily produce gas, which is more widely used across the UK to heat homes.

Jackdaw has a domestic production case that has been made for it, while Rosebank’s oil can be used domestically but is likely to be exported.

And Rosebank’s production life is expected to be longer than Jackdaw’s: a positive for jobs, but a negative for climate campaigners who want to stop the use of fossil fuels.

Will the UK Government approve Rosebank?

Views are mixed. In some Labour circles, there is a belief that the Government will reject plans for the oil field.

Some suggest that the approval of Jackdaw was giving the industry what it wanted, while stopping Rosebank would appease the party’s climate activist factions.

But different factors are at play.

One Labour source explained to me that Jackdaw was the easier sell: “There’s an argument on all fronts, when it comes to energy security, tax and the climate.”

On Rosebank, they said, the key advantage would be the tax revenues coming from the oil giants in the North Sea.

But the industry, buoyed by Jackdaw’s go-ahead, remains hopeful. They’re starting to take new Prime Minister Andy Burnham at face value when he talks about taking a “pragmatic approach” to the North Sea.

A source working closely with the project said that the government’s announcement of a national wealth fund that would consist of the tax revenue taken from oil and gas projects had given them reason to hope further.

They explained that Labour’s description of the fund being built on future revenues from oil and gas meant that Burnham’s government was “not bringing up the drawbridge on more projects”.

The second question asked by both industry and climate campaigners is when the Rosebank decision will come. A pretty big mistake on the drilling project involving a “very expensive and very heavy” piece of equipment falling thousands of metres into the sea had stalled development somewhat.

While Jackdaw may start supplying gas this month, Rosebank was expected to begin production early next year. Those with knowledge of the industry say this mistake has not set the oil field off course, but there are concerns that the UK Government may use it as an excuse to delay decision-making.

On this second question, industry and MPs are split.

Neil McCulloch, the boss of Adura, told the BBC’s Today programme on Wednesday morning that he was confident a “positive” decision would come in a matter of weeks.

Others think the Rosebank decision will be a little later in the year, with the view that Rosebank is still on the regulator’s desk as opposed to the energy secretary’s – but still this side of Christmas, due to the upcoming COP climate summit in Turkey.

MPs, however, are expecting a decision as late as January.

Much of the pushback on the Jackdaw move has focused on the delays to the decision-making process. These are complex projects, but with jobs, communities and industry at risk, moving slowly benefits no one.