What's at stake as Starmer and Swinney prepare to meet Trump in Scotland?

There’s more at stake for Keir Starmer and John Swinney than their handicap as they prepare to join Donald Trump at one of his Scottish golf courses later this month.

The Prime Minister and First Minister have both been invited to join the US President, most likely at the Trump International resort, at Menie in Aberdeenshire.

These are going to be private, informal meetings, but there is still a considerable political risk attached.

Starmer will feel he’s done pretty well out of his approach to the unpredictable US President, so far.

After much cajoling, Trump has eventually ended up in a similar place to the Prime Minister on key foreign policy issues – supporting NATO, backing Ukraine against Russia, and calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

And on tariffs, rather than retaliating in the US President’s trade war, the Prime Minister has kept negotiations going, and has been rewarded with relatively gentle treatment for the UK, compared with America’s other trading partners like the EU and Canada.

An unlikely partnership seems to have grown between the two leaders, despite their very different styles and political persuasions.

But while Starmer and Trump have agreed a deal to start to reverse some of the tariffs already imposed on British exporters, it hasn’t been implemented yet. And while the US President has said he’ll release billions of dollars of military aid for Ukraine, he’s known for changing his mind.

So there’s a danger that the Prime Minister is seen to be answering a summons to Scotland for tee time – or perhaps just tea time – at a luxury resort, while critical British interests are still in the balance.

Indeed, when the US President returns to the UK in September for an unprecedented second state visit, that image could be even stronger as Starmer and Trump both attend what will be a lavish banquet hosted by King Charles at Windsor Castle.

Any of Trump’s critics argue a second state visit is an honour this President in particular is unworthy of, and protesters are expected to make those feelings known, wherever in the UK he is.

How will Swinney respond?

John Swinney faces a similar challenge. The SNP leader has plenty of supporters who believe he shouldn’t meet with Trump at all, and plenty who think he should use the opportunity to advance Scottish business interests.

When the President tells the First Minister to “get rid of the windmills” and switch on the oil, how will Swinney respond?

At least Swinney gets to do it away from the glare of the Oval Office TV cameras, broadcasting live to the world. But both leaders will also be wary of the fact that a private meeting could be followed by a very public post on Trump’s personal social media platform, Truth Social.

Neither Starmer nor Swinney are known to be keen golfers; if they head out on the greens, it’s likely to just be for a walk. They could still end up in the rough, though.