What does Donald Trump's return mean for Scotland?

Donald Trump is back and 24 hours in to his second presidency he has made it clear that he is going from divisive to decisive.

He is not putting divisive behind him. In his inauguration speech, he was scathing about the Biden administration describing it as “a government that cannot manage a simple crisis at home, while at the same time stumbling in to a continuing catalogue of catastrophic events abroad”.

He is moving to decisive, withdrawing from the World Health Organisation and the Paris Climate Deal, declaring an immigration emergency at the southern border and pardoning almost 1,600 supporters who were arrested in the 2021 riot at the US Capitol when they stormed the very building he made his inaugural speech in yesterday.

I watched that speech and it was like no other I have seen from any political leader. It was Donald Trump in full domineering mode.

He said he had been “saved by God to make America great again”.

The Inauguration Of Donald J. Trump As The 47th President on January 20, 2025. Getty Images

He wants to take back control of the Panama Canal, which is in Panama. The Republic of Panama is an independent country in Latin America with a population of just over 4 million, that’s just a million less than Scotland. Next he is coming for Mars promising to “plant the stars and stripes on the planet”.

If that speech had been made by Sir Keir Starmer after he became Prime Minister or by John Swinney when he became First Minister, we would have thought they were mad. And many think Donald Trump is mad, but he was elected 47th President of the United States of America by a democratic vote of the people of the USA and as such, the rest of the world has no option but to accept that.

The Greens say Scotland should make a stand against him. They have been entirely consistent in their opposition to Trump. In fact, one of the best political protests I have ever seen was by a Green activist when Donald Trump came to the Scottish Parliament in 2012. The protester walked around behind him rubbing a balloon against his jumper and holding above Donald Trump’s head, ruffling the perfectly quaffed hair.

The First Minister and Prime Minister have already made it clear that will not be their approach. They understand they have to deal with President Trump, but they know it won’t be easy. He is not an easy man to deal with.

Donald Trump as he formally opens the new Trump Turnberry Clubhouse in 2015. SNS Group

Over the years, he has fallen out with previous First Ministers. He fell out with Alex Salmond over his golf course in Aberdeenshire and wind turbines off the coast. Nicola Sturgeon kicked him out of the Global Scot network of international business figures. Just a few months ago John Swinney said he would rather Kamala Harris won the Presidential election, but he has since had a very cordial call from President Trump.

Last night on Scotland Tonight I spoke to Erol Morkoc of Republicans Overseas. He says there is nothing tying Donald Trump back this time. This is Trump unleashed. He says insiders tell him that Donald Trump might not accept Peter Mandelson as the UK Ambassador, he thinks he will be “frozen out”. That would be a serious blow to the Prime Minister’s attempt to woo the President. The last time he was President he liked meeting the Queen, this time I would expect plenty of Royal meetings to butter him up.

Donald Trump is the most Scottish President. Morkoc says he is an Anglophile, who believes in the special relationship. He says the tariffs being threatened by Trump are not about targeting Scottish industry, but last time he put a 25% tariff on Scotch malt whisky imports for 18 months which the Scottish Whisky Association estimated cost the industry £600m.

I would think Donald Trump will visit the UK this year, specifically I think he will visit his Aberdeenshire estate to open a new golf course named after his mother Mary Anne McLeod.

Before that will come Tartan Day in the US. That’s the first real chance for Scotland to connect, maybe not directly with Donald Trump, but certainly with his team.

Donald Trump’s son Eric is a regular visitor to Scotland, he is also one of his father’s closest advisers. For Scottish politicians wondering how to handle the Trump Presidency, that might be the easiest way in.