What do this week's by-elections mean for Starmer?

It’s a consequential week for Westminster with three significant by-elections taking place on Thursday.

Scotland has two, in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, after SNP politicians Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins decided to trade London for Edinburgh at the Holyrood election in May.

Currently, the SNP has fewer MPs in the Commons than Reform UK. While the party is confident it can retain the Broughty Ferry constituency, there are concerns about Aberdeen South.

Flynn has a majority of 1,244 with the Conservatives a close second. The Scottish Tories believe that had Reform UK not stood – Nigel Farage’s party picked up more than 6,000 votes – the blues would have won.

Stephen Flynn, the former SNP MP for Aberdeen South. House of Commons

The SNP’s nervousness about this race is reflected in the steady stream of senior politicians travelling through, including the area’s former MP.

Some have suggested the reason Flynn is in Scotland and not the US for the World Cup is because his ESTA was revoked – though STV News understands no issues were flagged by the American Embassy.

The party’s concern about this race may also be tempered by the fact that Reform UK is standing a candidate.

Politics

Who are the candidates in Thursday’s by-elections?

Seats up for grabs are Makerfield in Greater Manchester, Aberdeen South in north-east Scotland, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in eastern Scotland

The Scottish Conservatives are trying to capitalise on the buyer’s remorse unionist voters may feel after backing Reform here in May.

And there’s a third poll in Makerfield, which could have serious implications for the leadership of the Labour Party and the future of the country

The by-election was triggered after Josh Simons decided to quit his MP role during a tumultuous week for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is standing in Makerfield – and says that if he wins, he will challenge the Prime Minister for the top job. Getty Images

Simons – a former director of the Labour Together think tank, which was founded by Morgan McSweeney, the Prime Minister’s campaign guru and former chief of staff – came under fire after it emerged he had paid a private investigative firm to look into a journalist examining the organisation’s financial interests.

Simons quit his government post as Cabinet Office minister, and since then seems to have decided that he no longer backs Sir Keir as Labour leader either.

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is standing in Makerfield – and says that if he wins, he will challenge the Prime Minister for the top job.

It’s not certain that Burnham will win; even if he does, the Prime Minister has vowed to fight on.

But many of his MPs want to see him set out a timetable for his resignation ahead of any change of leader – and a few of them have leadership ambitions of their own.

On Tuesday, former health secretary Wes Streeting set out his vision for a “progressive capitalism” Britain.

He says he would support business, entice highly-skilled workers back to the UK via a Global Talent Programme, bring in emergency infrastructure legislation to push on with housing and transport projects and green-light the Jackdaw and Rosebank projects – to help build a greener country with the tax receipts.

Streeting also made a subtle dig at Burnham, who last year said in an interview he didn’t want to be “in hock” to the bond markets and more recently waved away questions about the government’s fiscal rules.

“Bond markets are not Bond villains, and fiscal rules matter”, Streeting said.

Burnham has come under fire for a number of comments he’s made on spending in recent weeks – most recently U-turning on a remark he made about compensating the Waspi women and committing to keep the triple lock on pensions despite concerns about the welfare budget.

The Prime Minister was further weakened after another series of government resignations last week over his defence plans.

Last week, defence secretary John Healey stepped down after his calls for a minimum of £18bn for defence were not heeded.

He was followed out of government in quick succession by armed forces minister Al Carns and two other defence parliamentary private secretaries.

While allies of Healey deny he is eyeing up a shot at the leadership, Aberdeen-born Al Carns MP has suggested he would throw his hat into the ring – and this morning was backed by Blue Labour founder Maurice Glasman.

Today, Sir Keir is in Paris for the G7 summit after declaring new sanctions on Russia. He has since met with the President of the European Council to discuss a closer relationship to help strengthen European security and pledged more support for Ukraine.

But while the Prime Minister is generally at his best on foreign affairs, it seems unlikely that any show of international strength is likely to change his situation at home.