The SNP has extended its lead with John Swinney enjoying a rise in approval ahead of May’s Holyrood election, while support for Labour slumped, according to the latest polling.
The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey of 1,038 adults, conducted in the first week of election campaigning, March 26 and March 31, shows the SNP on 39% of the Scottish Parliament constituency vote.
That’s a three-point increase since March and a 24-point lead over Labour (15% of the constituency vote) and Reform UK in third (15%).
STV NewsAnas Sarwar’s party is now tied in second place with Nigel Farage’s outfit, after Labour suffered a five-point slump and Reform lost one point.
The Scottish Conservatives have gained two points since the Ipsos poll in March.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens remain on 10% and 7% respectively, showing no change.
If replicated on polling day, it would still be a weaker SNP performance than at the last Holyrood election in 2021, when the party won 48% of the constituency vote.
Four in ten voters also say they may change their mind before polling day.
On the Holyrood regional list, the SNP lead with an increased share of 29% – ahead of the Scottish Green Party and Reform UK joint second with 16%, Labour on 15%, the Conservatives on 13% and the Lib-Dems on 9%.
STV NewsThe regional list system uses eight regions (Central, Glasgow, Highlands & Islands, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife, North East, South, West) to elect seven extra MSPs per region via proportional representation.
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “The SNP will be buoyed by these new numbers. Our poll shows them improving their polling lead early in the Holyrood election campaigns, John Swinney’s approval rating has risen, and the party remains the most trusted to handle the biggest issue for voters at this election, the NHS.
“Meanwhile, the poll makes grim reading for Scottish Labour, showing their support weakening on both constituency and regional list votes.
“With more than four in ten voters saying they may change their minds, however, none of Scotland’s parties can afford to be complacent.
“For the SNP, voters switching allegiance between now and polling day could make the crucial difference to whether the party wins a majority of seats or is again a minority government.”
STV NewsThe SNP is projected to win 63 seats in the next Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Greens would take 17 seats, Reform UK 15 seats and Scottish Labour 14 seats.
The Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish Liberal Democrats are projected to win 12 and 8 seats respectively.
Coalition government?
STV NewsIf the SNP does not win a majority of seats on May 7, one or more other parties could have an influence over the Scottish Government post-election, either because they join a coalition or because a minority government relies on their support.
The least divisive option for the public appears to be the Scottish Liberal Democrats – 32% say they would be happy to see the Liberal Democrats having influence over the next Scottish Government, while just 14% would be unhappy with this.
The Scottish Greens and Scottish Labour are more divisive prospects for the public. While 34% would be happy to see the Scottish Green Party having influence over the next Scottish Government, 29% would be unhappy.
Similarly, 32% would be happy to see Scottish Labour having influence over the next Scottish Government, but 27% would be unhappy.
Over half (52%) would be unhappy to see Reform UK having influence over the next Scottish Government, while 40% say the same of the Scottish Conservatives.
What matters to voters?
STV NewsHealthcare and the NHS is again the top concern for voters (56%) ahead of May’s election.
That is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living and immigration.
Energy policy is the fourth most important issue, with 27% saying this issue will be very important to how they vote – the first time energy policy has appeared in the top five issues for the public.
A quarter of the public say Scottish independence/devolution will be very important to how they’ll vote (25%, rising to 57% among SNP supporters).
The public remains divided on the constitutional question, with 50% of those likely to vote in an immediate referendum saying they would vote Yes and 50% that they would vote No.
Leader satisfaction
STV NewsNone of the party leaders asked about in Ipsos’ poll are rated positively overall by the public. This contrasts with the early-campaign position at the last Scottish Parliament elections in April 2021, when most of the Scottish party leaders enjoyed positive net satisfaction ratings.
First Minister John Swinney’s ratings have improved since March, and he is again the most highly rated of the political leaders asked about in this poll. 40% of the public say they are satisfied with his performance and 48% that they are dissatisfied – a net satisfaction rating of -8 and an upward swing of +4 since February.
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar’s net approval rating has not moved, with 26% of the public satisfied with him and 55% dissatisfied – a net rating of -29.
Dissatisfaction with Reform UK Scotland leader Malcolm Offord has increased, with 57% of the public dissatisfied with him and 16% satisfied, giving a net approval rating of -41, a downward swing of -4.5 since February.
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