SNP and Labour neck-and-neck ahead of 2026, poll suggests

The SNP and Labour are neck-and-neck in support ahead of the 2026 election, a poll suggests.

Pollster Survation spoke to 1,021 Scots eligible to vote between August 27 and 29 in a survey commissioned by campaign group Scotland in Union.

According to the poll, both the SNP and Labour were on 28% support in the constituency vote among likely voters, while Anas Sarwar’s party enjoys a one point lead over John Swinney’s at 25% and 24% respectively in the regional list vote.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories will be wary of the rise in popularity of Reform UK.

The Nigel Farage-led party failed to win a seat north of the border in July’s general election, but took significant support from the Tories.

In the Survation poll, the Tories would win just 11% of the constituency vote – compared to 22% at the last election – while Reform would jump to 9%.

The Tories would win the same support at the regional level, while Reform would win 8%.

The Scottish Greens, meanwhile, boasted 6% support in constituencies and 9% in the regional list, the Scottish Lib Dems enjoyed 9% in both areas and Alba had 1% in the constituency and 2% in the regions.

The poll also sought to assess the level of support for Scottish independence as the 10-year anniversary of the referendum in 2014 approaches.

The poll showed 59% support for staying in the UK, compared to 41% for independence among decided voters.

However, the question did not mirror that which was put before Scots a decade ago, instead echoing the question asked to Britons in the Brexit referendum two years later.

The question asked by the pollster was, “if there was a referendum with the question, ‘Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’, how would you vote?”

While the 2014 question asked was, “should Scotland be an independent country?”

Alastair Cameron, the founder and chair of Scotland in Union, said the poll showed “the majority of voters still want to remain”.

“The SNP’s relentless campaign to re-run the referendum has detracted from the important job of government,” he added.

“People want their politicians to prioritise what really matters – improving our NHS, tackling the cost of living, creating jobs, and delivering housing.”

SNP MSP Stuart McMillan said: “This poll clearly shows that the First Minister’s priorities – eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, supporting public services and tackling the climate emergency – are clearly those of the Scottish people, and independence is the key to unlock Scotland’s full potential in all of these areas.

“Within very limited powers we’ve already shown what’s possible when Scotland’s values are reflected in government, with policies such as free tuition and the Scottish Child Payment transforming lives every day.

“But ultimately, we cannot make the change we want to see without the full powers of an independent nation.

“The SNP believe in independence because we believe it is in the best interests of Scotland, her people and her future; and we will continue to make that case as we look ahead to 2026.”

Scottish Conservative MSP Craig Hoy said: “Scots roundly rejected the SNP’s latest independence plans at the General Election, despite the nationalists putting it on page one, line one of their manifesto.

“Their relentless push for another referendum is simply not a priority for people in Scotland.

“They want this tired and out-of-touch SNP Government to ditch their independence obsession and focus on the issues that really matter like record backlogs in our NHS, restoring standards in our schools and growing our economy.”