Scottish Government unveils new carbon budget plans to replace net zero targets

The Scottish Government has unveiled new carbon budget proposals to replace its net zero climate targets.

Ministers have pledged a five-yearly cycle of carbon budgets, which aim to wind down emission more steadily and be more resistant to outside forces like unseasonable cold snaps driving up heating demand.

If the new carbon budgets are approved by MSPs in the autumn, they will set “clear” legal limits on emissions in Scotland for the next two decades.

The proposals come less than a year after MSPs voted to scrap the Scottish Government’s last legally-binding climate targets.

Under former first minister Humza Yousaf, the Scottish Government announced plans to abandon the interim target of reducing emissions by 75% by the end of the decade, accepting the goal was “out of reach”, but remaining committed to reaching net zero by 2045.

The Scottish Government’s climate action and energy secretary Gillian Martin said the new climate goals will “not ask the impossible of people”.

“When we publish our draft Climate Change Plan later this year, it will set out the policies needed to continue to reduce our emissions and meet our first three carbon budget targets,” she said.

“It will not ask the impossible of people. We will not sacrifice people’s health or wealth.”

Between 2026 and 2030, according to the Scottish Government’s proposals, emissions should be 57% lower than the 1990 baseline.

Between 2031 and 2035, the target is a 69% reduction from the baseline, and 80% for the following five years.

In the final years of the plan – 2041 to 2045 – emissions should have reduced by 94%, with the aim remaining for Scotland to reach net zero by this time.

“These carbon budgets keep Scotland at the forefront of efforts to protect the planet and our Climate Change Plan will ensure the action we take is fair, ambitious and capable of rising to the emergency before us,” said Martin.

As of 2023, Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 51.3% from 1990 levels.

According to the latest Greenhouse Gas Statistics report, emissions fell fell by nearly 2% in 2023, but climate activists said progress is “too slow”.

Martin said: “Scotland is now halfway to our 2045 climate change target and is ahead of the UK as a whole in reducing long term emissions.”

The announcement was welcomed by WWF Scotland, but the group urged the Scottish Government to commit to “strong action” to meet the targets.

Claire Daily, the group’s head of policy and advocacy, said: “The commitments will remain merely lines on a page without strong action to back them up, including measures to support clean heating in our homes and the transition to more climate and nature-friendly agriculture.

“Future generations cannot afford any more missed climate targets, and this carbon budget must be set for success with strong policies to reduce emissions.”

The proposals will be scrutinised by the Scottish Parliament before being voted on in the autumn.