Reform surges behind SNP as Labour support falls, poll shows

The SNP continue to lead the race for next year’s Holyrood election, but a new poll suggests Reform UK are gaining ground while Scottish Labour’s support has fallen sharply.

The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey of 1,061 adults, conducted between November 27 and December 3, shows the SNP on 35% of the Scottish Parliament constituency vote.

That’s a 17-point lead over Reform UK, who stand on 18%, up four points since June.

Scottish Labour’s constituency vote share has dropped seven points since June to 16%.

On the Holyrood regional list, the SNP lead on 28% – ahead of Labour on 18% and the Scottish Greens and Reform UK, both on 17%.

The regional list system uses eight regions (Central, Glasgow, Highlands & Islands, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife, North East, South, West) to elect seven extra MSPs per region via proportional representation.

The SNP is projected to win 60 seats in May’s Holyrood election. Scottish Labour would take 19 seats, while Reform UK and the Scottish Greens would each win 17 seats.

The Scottish Conservatives are projected to win 11 seats and the Scottish Liberal Democrats five.

General Election polling

The SNP remains in front for Westminster voting on 33%, three points above their 2024 result.

Reform UK move into second on 20%, up four since June and sharply higher than their 7% share at the last General Election.

Labour fall to 17% – a five-point drop and less than half of their 35% vote in 2024.

Ipsos says 78% of 2024 SNP voters would back the party again, while Labour retain just 38% of their General Election voters.

Some 22% of 2024 Labour voters say they would now support Reform UK.

What matters to voters?

Healthcare and the NHS is the top concern for 57% of voters ahead of May’s election.

Inflation/rising cost of living follows on 41%, and immigration has surged in prominence, now on 30%, after not featuring in the top ten issues in June.

Reform UK supporters are particularly motivated by immigration, with 80% saying it is a very important issue.

Leader satisfaction

None of the party leaders asked about in the poll were rated positively overall by the public.

First Minister John Swinney is the least poorly rated, with 35% of the public saying they are satisfied with his performance and 49% that they are dissatisfied – a “net” satisfaction rating of -14.

Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar’s approval ratings have fallen since June, with 23% of the public satisfied with him and 51% dissatisfied – a net satisfaction rating of -28.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings have fallen again this wave, with more than three quarters of the Scottish public (77%) dissatisfied with him and just 14% satisfied – giving a net satisfaction rating of -63, the lowest Ipsos has yet measured for him in Scotland.

Reform UK’s Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have also fallen, due to a rise in dissatisfaction with his performance, from 54% dissatisfied in June to 61% now.

Independence still finely balanced

The public remains divided on the constitutional issue of Scottish independence. If a referendum were held now, 52% of those likely to vote would vote “Yes” and 48% would vote “No”.

The prospect of a Reform UK government at Westminster could drive up support for Scottish independence further.

Among those who currently say they would vote No in an immediate referendum, 16% think that if Reform UK was elected to government at the next General Election, this would make them more likely to vote Yes – although most (61%) say it would make no difference.

In contrast, just 4% of current No voters think that if the Conservative Party was elected at the next General Election this would make them more likely to vote Yes, while 70% say that it would make no difference.

Over half (55%) of currently undecided voters say that a Reform UK government at Westminster would make them more likely to vote Yes – compared with 4% who say this would be more likely to make them vote No and 25% who say it would make no difference.

SNP holding onto their core voters more successfully than other parties

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “Five months out from the next Holyrood elections, these new results show the SNP out in front and holding onto their core voters more successfully than other parties – although with a lower share of the vote than the party achieved at the last Scottish Parliament elections.

“Reform UK’s vote share in Scotland has continued to improve, although there has been a rise in public dissatisfaction with Nigel Farage’s performance as party leader.

“Meanwhile, Scottish Labour are experiencing continued decline in their vote share, likely to relate to the UK Labour Government’s unpopularity.

“One dramatic shift in recent months has been the increased importance of immigration to Scotland’s voters.

“This issue looks set to feature in the Holyrood election campaigns, and with one in five saying Reform UK is the party they trust most on immigration, the party’s messaging on this issue is clearly resonating with a significant minority of Scots.”