Public critical of SNP government but unconvinced Labour would do better

Most Scots think the Scottish Government is doing a bad job on improving the NHS, according to a new poll published on Wednesday.

The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey, taken between February 21 and 26, found that three times as many Scots believe the SNP minority government has done a bad job of improving the NHS since the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections as those who think it has done a good job.

But there is no consensus among the public as to whether a Scottish Labour Government would do any better in terms of improving the NHS – 35% say it would make no difference, while 25% say it would do a worse job and 22% that it would do a better job.

Leadership popularity

No politician asked about in the poll received a positive “net” rating from the Scottish public. However, John Swinney and Kate Forbes are the least unpopular.

Three in ten of the public (30%) have a favourable opinion of the First Minister, while 38% view him unfavourably. Similarly, 27% have a favourable opinion of Forbes, with 35% saying they have an unfavourable opinion of her.

Favourability towards Scottish politicians - Ipsos poll. — Favourability towards Scottish politicians – Ipsos poll. Ipsos

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s favourability ratings are the lowest Ipsos has measured for either politician since this polling series began in October 2022.

Both are less well regarded overall than Swinney or Forbes.

Over twice as many Scots say they have an unfavourable opinion of Sarwar (42%) as have a favourable opinion of him (19%). More than half (53%) hold an unfavourable opinion of Starmer, while just 21% have a favourable view of him.

Both Sarwar’s and Starmer’s ratings have fallen compared with Ipsos’ previous poll in September 2024, with swings of -3.5 and -4.5 respectively.

Six in ten Scots (61%) say they have an unfavourable opinion of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, while 18% have a favourable opinion of him.

However, he polls relatively better among those who voted Conservative at the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2021, with 45% of 2021 Conservative voters viewing him favourably.

This compares to 53% of 2021 Conservative voters who have a favourable view of Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay and UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

State of the parties

The SNP holds a net favourability rating of -12. 32% of Scots are favourable towards the party of government (no change from September), while 44% are unfavourable.

The Scottish Labour Party has a net favourability rating of -20 (-3.5 swing from September). 23% are favourable towards the party, while 43% are unfavourable.

The Scottish Conservative Party has the lowest net favourability rating of any party measured in our poll, at -42 (+2 swing since September). Just 15% of Scots are favourable towards the party, while 57% are unfavourable.

Reform UK’s net favourability rating is also low, at -38 (+2 swing since September). 19% are favourable towards the party, while 57% are unfavourable.

Scottish Government performance

More than three times as many Scots say the Scottish Government has done a bad job of improving the NHS in Scotland since the 2021 Holyrood elections as say it has done a good job of this (57% bad job, 18% good job).

The public are more negative than positive about Scottish Government performance across a range of policy areas, including managing the economy, education, improving their own living standards and improving living standards for people on low incomes, and setting the right level of income tax.

And while Scots are less negative about the Scottish Government’s performance on tackling the climate crisis, more nonetheless say it has done a bad job (33%) than say it has done a good job (24%).

Views on Scottish Government performance - Ipsos poll. — Views on Scottish Government performance – Ipsos poll. Ipsos

Would Labour do a better job in charge at Holyrood?

There is no consensus among the public on whether Labour would do any better at governing in Scotland than the current Scottish Government.

Across a range of policy areas, the public are most likely to say that a Labour Scottish Government would make no difference – between 33% and 43% of the public give this view across policy areas.

On public services, Scots are split as to whether Scottish Labour would do a better job than the current Scottish Government of improving the NHS.

Some 22% believe Labour would do better but 25% say it would do a worse job, while 35% say it would make no difference.

On improving the education system, 21% say Labour would do a better job, 23% say it would do a worse job and 37% think it would make no difference.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Scotland, said: “Fourteen months out from the next Holyrood elections, these findings suggest the Scottish public is broadly negative about the SNP’s record in government but showing little enthusiasm for the alternatives.

“Favourability towards both Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour has fallen compared with six months ago, signalling an increasingly difficult climate of opinion for Labour in Scotland.

“While the First Minister’s ratings are the least worst of any of the Scottish party leaders’, the public’s critical view of his government’s record on public services and the economy should give him particular cause for concern – as these are typically among the top issues that matter to Scottish voters.”