Poll suggests pro-independence majority at Holyrood and Labour ‘implosion’

The SNP would be the biggest party at Holyrood at the next election and support for Labour would have “imploded”, new analysis of polling has suggested.

A poll carried out for The Herald by Find Out Now put support for the SNP at 31% on the constituency vote and 25% on the list vote.

It put Labour’s constituency vote at 19% and its list vote at 15%, while the Liberal Democrats were at 10% and 13% respectively, as were the Scottish Greens.

The poll put the Scottish Tories at 12% on the constituency vote and 13% on the list, while Reform was at 13% on the constituency and 11% on the list.

Alba was at 2% the constituency vote and 7% on the list.

Analysis by polling expert Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would win 51 seats, down from 64 at the 2021 election, while Labour would win 16 – down six.

The Scottish Conservatives would win 15 seats, as would the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens, while Alba would have eight and Reform nine, the analysis suggests.

There would be 74 MSPs from pro-independence parties, which would mean a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.

Sir John told The Herald: “To be honest, the polling tells us there is no dramatic breakthrough here, it is just that Labour’s difficulties seem to continue.

“Reform’s rise is well-maintained. The SNP, if anything, is slipping back on these polls compared to previous polls.

“But the point here is the SNP finds itself where they are basically because Labour support has imploded.

“That just gives the SNP the chance of forming the next government, albeit from a rather weaker position than it is at the moment.”

The poll of 1,334 people was carried out by Find Out Now between January 15 and 20.

It found that if a Westminster election was held tomorrow, 31% of those questioned said they would vote SNP while 18% said Labour.

Support for the Tories was at 12%, the Lib Dems at 10%, the Greens at 7%, Reform at 17% and others at 5%.

Analysis by Sir John suggests this would result in 31 seats for the SNP and would give Labour 11, the Lib Dems six and the Tories five.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said: “Labour has put an end to 14 years of Tory chaos and is working to fix the foundations and transform our country.

“Now we need a change of direction in Scotland to put an end to SNP failure and decline.

“Scottish Labour will work tirelessly to earn voters’ trust and demonstrate that we can deliver the new direction our country so badly needs.”

SNP depute Leader Keith Brown said: “I welcome this opinion poll which, if replicated in the Scottish election in May 2026, would see the SNP return to government alongside the largest pro-independence majority the Scottish Parliament has ever seen – 74 MSPs.

“Meanwhile, Labour’s support would shrink to just 16 MSPs – their worst ever result in a Scottish Parliament election.

“Support for Labour is imploding, and it’s hardly surprising given their betrayal of so many people, through axing the Winter Fuel Payment, maintaining the two-child cap, hiking National Insurance for charities and businesses, refusing compensation for the Waspi women, and skyrocketing energy prices.

“Labour can promise plenty in an election, but they cannot deliver in Government.

“As we approach next year’s election, the SNP will set out a positive, forward-looking vision for Scotland – one made in Scotland, for Scotland – unlike Scottish Labour, which, just like Scotland itself, is continuing to pay the price for having far too many of its decisions made in London.”