Insight: The constitution is back at the forefront of the political agenda

This is the week that the constitution fought its way back to the forefront of the political agenda.

It started with three independence supporting First Ministers meeting in Cardiff and is drawing to a close with a unionist fight back meeting in Edinburgh on the eve of the anniversary of indyref.

I was at the press conference in Cardiff and spoke to John Swinney, Rhun ap Iorwerth, Michelle O’Neil and Mary Lou MacDonald. I was at the unionist summit in Edinburgh today and spoke to Marie Macklin, who organised it, DUP MLA Philip Brett and, to give him his full title, the Most Worthy Grand Master of the Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland, Andrew Murray. (Obviously I was at the Independence Referendum in 2014 too, covering every cough, spit and fart along the way.)

Twelve years on from indyref, it had started to feel like the constitutional debate had calmed. Between Labour winning big in the 2024 General Election, including in Scotland, and the SNP’s multi-faceted meltdown and turmoil, not to mention the rise of Reform, it felt like the focus of Scottish politics might have moved. It never really went away, but it felt like it was less prominent, less dominant for a while; but this week it is back.

On Monday, John Swinney told me he was convinced he would deliver indyref2 in this parliamentary term. He didn’t explain how, but he was more bullish about it than I’ve seen him in years. Today, the Grand Master of the Orange Lodge in Scotland told me he was not worried about the future of the Union. He said: “Scotland was No in 2014 and it is still No today”.

I interview John Swinney a lot, but it is a long time since I interviewed a Grand Master. Today Andrew Murray told me he was setting his sights on the Scottish Parliament and wants to gain some political clout for the 20-30,000 Orange Lodge members in Scotland. He was quite annoyed that his six invitations to the First Minister for a meeting were snubbed by John Swinney. He has no such issues with the DUP, but in Northern Ireland there is a significant crossover in membership between Unionist politicians and the Orange Order. That is very much not the case in Scotland. There are a few councillors who are members, most notably Richard Nelson, who was the Conservative candidate in the Hamilton Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election last year, but there are no MSPs or MPs in Scotland that I can think of who have close associations, and Mr Murray conceded that they had to gain credibility.

The pro-independence leaders have pledged to hold another meeting a year from now. Marie Macklin wants another pro-Union summit before Christmas, but speaking to opposition leaders in the Scottish Parliament, they seemed in no rush. Some are happy to meet the Orange Order and have done so, but others are less keen to be publicly associated, wary rather than hostile.

After that came First Ministers Questions which was dominated by Scotland’s constitutional future. Both Reform’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord and Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay urged John Swinney to leave it “for a generation”. John Swinney hit back with a line he used on Monday – that by the end of this parliamentary term there will be a million Scots who have never had a say.

So depending on your view the Union is safe in Andy Burnham’s hands or Westminster is coming to an end, the future is bright with independence or the future is bright because it is orange! Whatever you think, and whether you like it or not – the constitutional question (for politicians in Scotland at least) is back.