Insight: Overhaul of benefits system set to be biggest battle of Keir Starmer's premiership

Plans are set to be unveiled for a major shake-up of the benefits system, which could see billions of pounds cut from support for disabled people or those with long-term health conditions.

A number of Labour MPs have voiced anger ahead of the announcement on Tuesday, calling for those with the most serious conditions to be protected.

Liz Kendall has promised to ensure “trust and fairness in the social security system” when she overhauls the welfare system.

It comes after Downing Street said that there is a “moral and economic case” for reforming benefits, amid backbench disquiet over the expected proposals.

Number 10 has also denied that the plans are purely as a result of the UK’s difficult fiscal situation.

Insight Paris Gourtsoyannis

The UK Government wants to present this as a push to get more young people into work.

A growing number of young people are being signed off long term, some of them with mental health conditions, and ministers say what they need is better support to find a job.

But it’s clear that this is also about money. Health and disability benefits already cost the taxpayer £65bn a year. That’s forecast to rise to over £100bn by the end of the decade.

In Scotland, people who get Employment Support Allowance, or have their Universal Credit topped up because of a disability or health condition – they could see their support cut.

Other disability benefits are devolved, so cuts won’t have a direct effect in Scotland – but they would hit the Scottish Government’s budget overall, which might mean tough decisions about the level of support Scottish ministers can afford.

And what about the political reaction?

Well this is shaping up to be the biggest battle within the Labour Party of Keir Starmer’s premiership. We’ll see if any measures have been watered down on Tuesday.

Every Labour MP has been invited into Downing Street to try and win them over – I’ve been told those meetings with Keir Starmer’s advisers have been tense.

Scottish Labours MPs have told Number 10 that it hasn’t controlled the narrative around this announcement. Instead, leaks and rumours have frightened and angered disabled people.

On Tuesday, we’ll hear what the facts are.