Insight: Hundreds of jobs 'could' be created at Grangemouth - but massive investment needed

Project Willow is something you often hear Government ministers and politicians talking about as the future of Grangemouth.

The UK and Scottish Governments have spent £1.5m on this feasibility study for low carbon projects to replace the closing refinery. Quite often when I’ve asked them about the future of the site or jobs they say “oh wait and see what Project Willow recommends”.

Well I can tell you because I’ve seen some of the report – it says that about 400 jobs could be created in the next five years, maybe up to 1,750 by 2040. “Could” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.

That sounds pretty good, potentially pretty exciting, even for the workers who started receiving redundancy letters last week.

But then you look at the costs – to create these jobs would require hundreds of millions of pounds of capital investment.

Project Willow Grangemouth graphic STV News

Project Willow recommends nine projects over the next 20 years, developing sustainable aviation fuel and hydrogen power and other new low carbon energies.

It says there are four key things needed to make it work:

Government must de-risk investment in new technologies – and it will need financial support.
Support low carbon energy markets to help them compete with fossil fuels
Mobilise and scale supply chains
Update policy regulation

The first stages would require more than half a billion pounds of investment, to get to Sustainable Aviation Fuel production, another £800m, and then more than double that to reach the full jobs potential.

The Scottish Government doesn’t have that kind of money and it’s hard to see it coming from the UK Government or INEOS just now.

The full Project Willow report might seem more positive – we’ll find out at the end of the month.

A DESNZ spokesperson said: “We do not comment on speculation. Our focus is on leaving no stone unturned as we find a long-term future for Grangemouth.

“Before July, there was no overall plan for the future of the Grangemouth refinery. Within weeks, we worked with the Scottish Government to put together an unprecedented £100m package to support the community and invest in the local workforce, along with tailored support to secure good, alternative jobs.

“We are also jointly funding Project Willow with £1.5m, which is urgently engaging with trade unions and developing options for a sustainable industrial future at the site.”