Insight: Can Andy Burnham avoid making the same mistakes as Sir Keir Starmer?

This time next week, the seventh prime minister in ten years will be welcomed to Downing Street.

Andy Burnham has been nominated by more than 80% of the parliamentary Labour Party as their choice for leader. With just 77 MPs who have not yet declared their support, the maths makes it impossible for anyone else to stand, given any contender would need the backing of 81 MPs.

But though Burnham is looking towards a coronation next week, these ‘North Korea’ levels of support don’t translate to MPs having full confidence in the Mancunian.

Scottish Labour MPs privately want him to lay out his vision for Scotland – after his recent devolution speech was deemed too England-centric. There are concerns that Burnham will simply hand the Scottish Government more cash with minimal oversight over where it might be spent.

Al Carns, the Aberdonian former armed forces minister who had suggested he might run against Burnham, has now rowed in behind the Makerfield MP – but he wasn’t alone in thinking a contest could prove beneficial for understanding Burnham’s policy positions. Fear of the risk – a potentially fractious race with damaging consequences – ultimately won out.

Currently, we face a strange situation in which Burnham is beginning to be treated like the UK’s next prime minister without having officially been confirmed into the role.

As such, MPs have started lobbying him to take a stand on particular policy issues, with immigration the focus today. Home secretary Shabana Mahmood’s Immigration and Asylum Bill will have its second reading in the Commons this afternoon, and though immigration remains a top concern for UK voters, a group of nearly 80 MPs have already urged Burnham to row back on Mahmood’s reforms.

The bill will lead to a new system for asylum appeals, the repayment of asylum support money by those who can afford it and changes to how long you must have lived in the UK to be granted indefinite leave to remain, changing this from five to ten years.

While it is understood Burnham will be backing the bill today, The Times is reporting that the Home Office is planning to relax indefinite leave to remain rules for ‘Boriswave’ migrants, the 1.6 million migrants who have arrived in the UK since 2021, in a bid to keep Labour MPs onside.

This group would, however, be unable to access benefits payments to help challenge the perception that people look to claim from the state as soon as they’re granted leave to remain. The Tories say they will support the immigration reforms if they’re ‘unamended, undiluted’ – but it remains to be seen whether softening the bill in this way will be deemed acceptable by all sides.

What Burnham’s tax plans are is also worrying his opponents. Analysis by Reform UK, which looked into what Burnham has pledged in the past, suggested the former Greater Manchester mayor could tax wealthier people £38bn – including capital gains tax reform and raising money from landlords’ rental income via National Insurance. The party says that the introduction of new taxes not mentioned in Labour’s 2024 manifesto would raise serious questions about Burnham’s mandate – and, if proposed, should result in a snap election.

But while Reform UK remains ahead in the polls, the popularity of its leader, Nigel Farage, has dropped to its lowest point since the 2024 general election, as scrutiny on his finances intensifies. His net approval rating has fallen to minus 27, according to Opinium polling, while YouGov found that 60% of people believe he acted incorrectly over his finances.

Until last week, Farage was facing two investigations into his finances by the parliamentary standards commissioner: one over an undeclared £5m sum he received days before he decided to stand to become an MP and the second over the funding of security and accommodation by convicted criminal George Cottrell, who is based in Montenegro.

Police are also investigating £500,000 worth of donations to Reform made by Cottrell’s mother. Burnham’s premiership looks likely to collide with one of the toughest times Reform UK has faced since becoming a serious political force – which could further bolster his Reform-fighting record and strengthen his standing among his colleagues.

A number of Sir Keir Starmer’s big U-turns (including winter fuel payment cuts and welfare reforms) came after he was cowed by his backbenchers. The challenge for Andy Burnham will be whether he can find a middle ground where he keeps his party onside without allowing backbenchers to derail government policy – but a 400-strong party will be hard to keep in check.