This time last week, Andy Burnham was Labour’s newest MP and Sir Keir Starmer was adamant that he would be staying on as Prime Minister.
Now, Burnham remains the party’s newest MP but also looks set to take the reins from Starmer after the Labour leader announced in an impromptu press conference on Monday morning that he would be stepping down.
Left-wing Scottish MPs Euan Stainbank and Brian Leishman have long backed the Greater Manchester mayor for the top job, and currently Burnham is the only Labour politician to have thrown his hat in the ring – but with nominations opening on July 9, there’s time yet for leadership hopefuls to step forward.
Starmer’s announcement came after months of briefings against him by those in his own party – and even Cabinet – and it follows not just that Makerfield by-election that returned Burnham to parliament, but the May elections, where Labour performed disastrously across the country.
In a somewhat 11th-hour attempt to win back disgruntled Labour supporters, Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar disowned Starmer just months before polling day.
In the weeks that followed those May results, the Prime Minister has seen numerous resignations from his government and some challengers raise their heads above the parapet.
One of those was former health secretary Wes Streeting. A number of his Scottish allies quit their government jobs in a bid to pressure the Prime Minister to go, before Streeting himself resigned: Zubir Ahmed stepped down as health minister, while Melanie Ward quit as a parliamentary private secretary.
Streeting has since rowed in behind Burnham – his supporters knew that in a contest between him and Burnham, the former would have no chance – and has his sights set on becoming chancellor. (He set out his own economic vision in a London speech some days before the Makerfield by-election.)
While Ahmed, MP for Glasgow South West, was firmly in the Streeting camp, he has now declared his support for Andy Burnham.
When asked by STV News whether he felt betrayed by Streeting’s decision not to stand, he said: “I think what you see from Wes today is also putting self-interest aside, and thinking about his party and thinking about his country… Wes and Andy actually reflected on the fact that they’re not miles apart in what they view as being the right direction for this country, economically, morally and socially.”
The former health minister can’t be accused of lacking ambition either. Though currently a backbencher, he runs a tight ship, relying on both his chief of staff and communications officer for the day-to-day work, and the vascular surgeon has hopes his ministerial experience to date could take him into a Burnham Cabinet.
Scotland secretary Douglas Alexander had previously expressed his support for the Prime Minister, but told STV News that he thought Starmer’s resignation speech demonstrated “grace, dignity and a real sense of patriotism”.
Cabinet ministers had begun telling Starmer he needed to set out a resignation timetable last week – but Alexander refused to be drawn on that: “Whatever conversations I have with Downing Street are a private matter.”
While many Labour MPs only came to Westminster in 2024, Alexander worked with Burnham under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Emphasising their time together in previous Cabinets, Alexander recalled his working relationship with Burnham. But whether he will remain in place as Scottish secretary if the Makerfield MP does become Prime Minister has been much disputed behind the scenes.
One name that is doing the rounds among MPs when speculation about who the next Scotland secretary could be is that of current energy minister Michael Shanks. The former teacher rose to prominence after he won the 2023 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election with a 20% swing from the SNP to Labour.
He told STV News he was “sad” for Starmer on a personal level, describing the outgoing Prime Minister as a “good guy”.
But Shanks admitted that Labour hasn’t “connected enough with the public on the delivery of the change people expect”. He has now thrown himself fully behind Andy Burnham.
But not everyone is convinced by Burnham, and Aberdeen-born Al Carns – former armed forces minister, who quit over disagreements about defence investment – has refused to rule out a bid for the leadership.
While he’s not expected to be a serious threat to Burnham, some MPs believe a contest would helpfully push the new Makerfield MP to set out his policy platform ahead of entering No 10.
Carns may be a Birmingham MP now, but he has support among some Scottish MPs – from both Labour and, amusingly, the SNP.
But his repeated reference to problems with Labour’s Legacy Act has infuriated some of his colleagues who worry rolling back plans to prosecute veterans for their part in the Troubles will reignite tensions in Northern Ireland.
A contest hasn’t been ruled out, but a coronation seems most likely at this stage. And if this is the case, we could have a new Prime Minister in just three weeks time.
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