The inevitable question from any big statement by the chancellor is what does it mean for me and my family? In Holyrood, the question that naturally flows from the Spring Statement is, what does it mean for Scotland?
I have spoken to spin doctors from the Scottish and UK Governments to try to reach a balanced perspective. The great thing about spin doctors is they are much easier to get hold of than an NHS doctor!
Both sides agree that as a result of the Spring Statement, the Scottish Government actually gets a spending increase next year of around £28m. That mostly comes from extra building and education spending in England.
The welfare spending cuts in England don’t really start to have a significant knock-on effect here for a couple of years, but by the end of the decade, the Scottish Government reckon that today’s announcements will knock more than £400m off their block grant. That won’t necessarily come off welfare spending because the SNP has made it a priority, but it could if someone else is in Government next year.
This will become part of the battleground for the Scottish Parliament elections in just over 12 months’ time. So, the SNP accused Labour of imposing austerity cuts on the most vulnerable people in society. Some of Labour’s own MPs and MSPs are angry at the welfare cuts. Labour says they are trying to get people into work to grow the economy and point to figures showing that 133,000 people in Scotland want a job but are not looking because they might be sick, or working parents or would lose their benefits. The SNP counters, “you can’t cut your way to growth”.
The Greens accuse Labour of being on the side of the “super-rich, arms dealers and corporations making obscene profits”. The Lib-Dems say Labour missed the chance to overturn their own increase to employers’ National Insurance costs, and the Tories basically claim it’s all much worse now than when they were unceremoniously booted out of office by the voters just last year.
In the real world, Citizens Advice Scotland says the cost of living crisis hasn’t gone away and people are scared of welfare cuts. The STUC warn that the vulnerable are bearing the brunt, and on the business side, the Institute for Chartered Accountants in Scotland says it was unsurprising and gives businesses no more certainty.
So, if you are shouting at your screen right now, that’s all very well, but what does it mean for me? Well, if you are on Universal Credit in Scotland because of sickness, it’s bad news for you.
It’s estimated this will tip another 250,000 people into poverty. If you are struggling to get by, there’s not much here that is going to turn things around for you any time soon. If you work in the defence sector it might help secure your job. Rachel Reeves says this will make the average family £500 better off, but the reality for most is that you probably won’t notice much difference because chancellor’s statements rarely make many people feel better off.
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