Assisted dying in Scotland is not a done deal

Despite a much bigger parliamentary vote than anyone had expected, legalised assisted dying in Scotland is still far from a done deal.

MSPs voted by 70 to 56 to support the general principles of Liam McArthur’s Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults Bill.

There are currently 128 MSPs following the death of Christina McKelvie, that leaves two votes unaccounted for.

Health secretary Neil Gray abstained to maintain his neutrality as the minister who will have to deal with the Bill as it now starts to progress through the Parliamentary system.

And the other is Presiding Officer Alison Johnstone, who did not vote, although if it had been a tied vote of 63 each, she would have voted for the Bill at Stage 1 to allow it to continue.

So that gives the Bill a majority of 14.

That was much bigger than either side in this debate had predicted, but it could easily be overturned in the final vote at Stage 3 if just seven MSPs change their minds.

Just off the top of my head I can come up with seven MSPs who said they were voting for the Bill at Stage 1 but could reconsider when it gets to the final decision.

It’s the position Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay took. Others said yesterday they would do the same including Miles Briggs, Ross Greer, Emma Harper, Daniel Johnson, Colin Smyth and Brian Whittle.

That’s seven potential switchers already. And if the final Stage 3 vote is tied the Presiding Officer would vote against, sticking with the convention of preserving the status quo.

None of that takes anything away from the historic vote in the Scottish Parliament yesterday.

It came after one of the best debates Holyrood has hosted where speaker after speaker from all parties gave of their best, and gave much more of themselves than usual.

It was a respectful and emotional debate. Every speech was applauded. It was a debate befitting the life and death nature of the subject.

What it does is show that this debate is far from over.

What comes next is Stage 2 where the Health Committee will consider amendments. There will be a lot of amendments – Liam McArthur has already said he will change the qualifying age from 16 to 18.

There will be many more on things like defining the word “terminal”, whether doctors should opt in or out of it.

The Royal College of Pharmacists want their members to have to an opt in to fulfilling prescriptions for the life ending drugs.

The Scottish Parliament doesn’t actually have power over those drugs so would have to seek a Section 30 Order from Westminster, just like it did for the 2014 Independence Referendum, so that is not guaranteed.

Then there is the timing of the next stages. The Health Committee is not likely to start Stage 2 scrutiny until after the summer break.

That could take a couple of months, which means the final vote at Stage 3 is unlikely until the New Year.

Then it will be just a few months from the Scottish Parliament election which means this could be an issue in that campaign.

Even though Stage 1 was a free vote, based on each MSP’s conscience with no party direction, every single one of them were inundated by messages from constituents on both sides of the debate.

That could take on even more significance in the run-up to an election, and they could face questions at public hustings and meetings.

So this is far from a done deal, assisted dying is closer than it has ever been, but it is still a long way from law.