Poll: Large majority of Scots continue to back Remain

The TNS survey also suggested most Scots would vote No in another independence referendum.

EU vote: Scotland Fdecomite, http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite">
EU vote: Scotland "likely" to back Remain, claims poll. Fdecomite, http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite

A majority of people in Scotland continue to support the UK remaining in EU, according to a new poll.

The TNS poll of 1,008 adults found more than half (51%) said they would vote to remain on June 23, up three points.

Support for leaving remained steady at 21% while the remainder said they were not sure which way they would vote.

When those who are unsure which way to vote are removed, the poll suggests 71% would vote to remain and 29% would vote to leave.

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On a second Scottish independence referendum, 38% of those surveyed said they would back a Yes vote, 48% said they would vote No and 14% were unsure.

When those who are uncertain are removed, 44% would vote Yes and 56% would vote No, similar to the 2014 result of 45% and 55% respectively.

The survey, carried out between May 4 and 22, also found that in a scenario where Scotland voted to Remain but the UK as a whole backed Leave, 46% would not support another independence referendum, compared to 43% who would.

Almost nine out of ten (87%) of independence supporters would back the move, compared to only 13% of those who would vote No.

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First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said a vote to leave the EU against Scotland’s will could trigger a second independence referendum.

Head of TNS Scotland Tom Costley said: “There is little evidence that opinion towards independence has shifted significantly since September 2014, with support for a Yes vote, even in these circumstances, well below the 60% level that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has indicated she would be looking for before calling another vote.”

On EU referendum to be held on June 23, those who backed Labour in the Holyrood election were most likely to support Remain, at 72%, while Conservative supporters were least likely (49%).

Just over half (51%) of SNP voters said they would vote to Remain.

Turnout looks likely to be high, with about seven in ten (71%) stating they are certain to vote in the referendum, a slight drop from 75% last month.

Of those certain to vote, more than half (53%) back Remain, almost a quarter (24%) would vote Leave and the remainder are undecided.

Mr Costley said: “The level of support for the EU in Scotland has shown little change over the last few months and it looks likely that Scotland will vote to Remain on June 23.

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“There is still the potential for a high turnout, suggesting the Scottish public can see the importance of this decision.

“Both sides will be keen to get as many people as possible to cast their vote on the day. Given how close the race is looking across the UK, every vote will count.”


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