Puffin numbers fall by 30% in Firth of Forth amid climate change concerns

Concerns for the future of puffins has been raised after the number of the birds at one of the UK’s largest colonies fell by about 30% in two years.

NatureScot and the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) completed a count of burrows at the Isle of May National Nature Reserve (NNR) in the Firth of Forth this summer.

Based on the all-island count earlier this summer, scientists estimate there were 36,500 occupied puffin burrows, compared to 52,000 in the last survey in 2024, and 39,000 in 2017.

Pressures on seabird food supplies, poor winter survival and increasingly extreme weather conditions are all contributing to declines.

Experts fear “extreme climate events”, including intense storms and marine heat waves, have had an impact on the birds’ survival rates in recent years.

NatureScot Isle of May reserve manager David Steel said: “This decline is disappointing and concerning. Puffin numbers on the island fell sharply in the 2000s and recovered in the 2010s but have now dropped again.

“The decrease appears to be linked to a combination of ongoing pressures on seabird food supplies, poor winter survival and increasingly extreme weather conditions. Unfortunately, this mirrors similar challenges that are affecting seabirds more widely.

“All of this underlines the importance of continued monitoring and conservation work at sites like the Isle of May NNR, where data and research are playing a vital role in helping us to understand these trends and respond.”

Edinburgh & East

Puffin numbers fall by 30% in Firth of Forth amid climate change concerns

Pressures on food supplies, poor winter survival and extreme weather conditions are all contributing to declines

Puffins can spend up to eight months of the year out at sea, and only return to land in early spring to breed.

The birds generally mate for life, and pairs often return each year to the same nesting spot where the female lays a single egg which hatches into a puffling.

UKCEH said its long-term research shows that puffins have struggled with the impacts of climate change.

Storms in recent years have killed large numbers of birds, while rising ocean temperatures can reduce the availability of food sources for puffins – particularly sandeels.

UKCEH has been monitoring seabird colonies on the Isle of May for five decades.

Mark Newell, UKCEH’s field manager on the Isle of May, said: “We believe that the puffin population has recently suffered from a series of extreme climate events, including marine heat waves and intense storms affecting survival in three of the last five winters.

“The concern for puffins and other seabirds is that climate scientists are predicting an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events in future.”

A report published by NatureScot last week found Scotland’s seabirds are in serious decline, with the average population having halved since the 1980s.

Measures such as disinfecting visitors’ boots to reduce the risk of disease are helping to protect colonies.

However, conservationists say they do not believe the decline of Scotland’s seabirds is inevitable despite plummeting populations.