It's often been claimed that Scotland's large public sector would cushion us from the recession. It seems increasingly clear it's compounded it instead. 

Nearly one in four Scots - 23% - currently works for Scotland PLC.

As the recession hit, a popular theory was doing the rounds, it went something like this: public sector jobs are more secure than those in the private sector, thus Scotland would be insulated from the recession. It's a theory that's now being sorely tested. 

Scotland - as with the rest of the UK - is just emerging from the longest recession in a generation. 

Since the middle of 2008 our economy has shrunk by 6% - slightly more than the UK as a whole (5.8%). Yes - you read that correctly: more than the UK as a whole. 

It comes despite Scotland having a larger proportion of public sector workers than the rest of the UK, where 19.2% work for the state.

Now, it may be - although it's difficult to prove - unemployment would have been significantly higher in Scotland without our public sector safety net. 

But the insulation theory is beginning to look somewhat hollow. 

Scottish ministers insist we have a lower rate of unemployment and higher rates of both employment and economic activity than the UK as a whole.

Some of the blame for Scotland’s economic woes must also be pinned on our financial services sector - an industry left bruised and battered.

But Scotland’s dependence on the public sector can no longer be ignored.

Amid a soaring UK deficit, and plans to halve the debt mountain, the current spending squeeze is only going to get tighter.

With central and local government facing widespread funding cuts, job losses are expected to hit hard.

In Scotland, it's feared our over reliance on the public sector will serve to heighten the impact.

Yesterday’s report from the Fraser of Allander Institute, based at Strathclyde University Business School, makes for stark reading.

While it predicts Scotland's economy will emerge from recession by the end of the year – final quarter growth will be just 0.2%. Positive, but only just.

It says growth in 2010 will remain sluggish at best amid growing fears of a so-called 'double-dip' recession.

Under this scenario Scotland would drop back into the red - probably sometime next year - before a more sustainable, longer term recovery emerges.

This is in stark contrast to much of the rest of Europe, as well as America and Japan - all of which are already well into recovery.

Even when the sun does shine again on the Scottish economy, yesterday's report suggests we'll still lag behind the rest of the UK.

In short - the UK's lagging behind globally and within the UK, Scotland's even further behind.

One of the report's authors suggests the SNP's ambition to match UK growth rates by 2011 is now almost impossible to achieve.

The reason: yes, you guessed it - our large, some would say bloated, public sector.

Without a strong, vibrant and sizeable private sector - it's feared Scotland will lack the crucial engine to drive our economy forward.

Yesterday's report suggests growth here will bump along the bottom for some time yet - rising to just 1.6% in 2012. 

As it does so, jobs will be shed in bucket-loads - perhaps as many as 40,000 next year alone (the equivalent of full-houses at Hibs and Hearts put together). 

So where does this leave our public sector cushion? Well, looking somewhat flat and uncomfortable at best.

So where does this leave our public sector cushion? Well, looking somewhat flat and uncomfortable at best.

Instead of acting as a buffer – the recession here’s been sharper than the rest of the UK. As for the road to recovery, well a map may prove handy.