Fewer people will die from swine flu than had earlier been predicted, according to Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon
She told the Parliament that the revised "worst case" assumptions indicate up to 0.1% of people who become ill may die - around 2000 people. The previous estimate was 0.35%.
But as much as 30% of the population may still catch the H1N1 virus, unchanged from earlier assumptions.
Of those who become ill, one per cent will require hospitalisation - revised down from two per cent.
During "peak weeks" of a pandemic, sickness absence rates may reach 12% of the workforce.
Ms Sturgeon updated MSPs on vaccination plans and the impact on schools after the summer break.
She said: "Let me stress that these assumptions do not yet take account of the impact of our vaccination programme.
"Furthermore, they are not predictions, they are assumptions that allow us to plan for the worst, while of course continuing to hope for the best.
"And while having lower estimates for hospitalised cases and fatalities is positive, these assumptions will be kept under review."
She said rates of infection "remain relatively low" in Scotland.
New figures showed about 2,500 people contracted the virus in the past week - down from 3,300 the previous week.
Seven people who caught the virus have died in Scotland since it was first detected in spring.
