Poll of polls predicts record results for SNP, Greens

Polling: Nation to vote on Thursday.
Polling: Nation to vote on Thursday.© STV

A poll of polls on the final day of the Scottish Parliament election campaign has put the SNP on track for victory as a strengthened minority administration.

The ‘super-poll’, by public affairs consultants Weber Shandwick, predicts 59 seats for Alex Salmond's party, which would mean it would need the support of just six other MSPs to push through legislation.

The analysis of three recent opinion polls suggests Labour will have 42 seats, Conservatives 12, Greens eight and Liberal Democrats seven. Independent Margo Macdonald would also return.

But the poll assumes a uniform swing across Scotland and does not take into account the traditionally strong core votes for parties such as Labour in urban areas and the Lib Dems in the rural north.

If the poll is correct, the make-up of the 129-strong parliament would include a majority in favour of a referendum on independence.

The SNP would be able to seek support from the Green Party and potentially Ms Macdonald, who is a former SNP politician.

Weber Shandwick managing director Moray Macdonald said: "The SNP will be very excited by numbers like these.

"Not only should they manage to get the majority of their legislation passed, but there would be a majority in the Parliament in favour of a referendum on independence.

"These latest figures would see 68 MSPs elected on the basis of supporting independence - providing a majority of three over those supporting the maintenance of the United Kingdom.

"The trend from all the polls is clear that the SNP are making big gains. However, to pull this off the SNP need to win previously solid Labour and Lib Dem seats - there is a big question about whether they can do this in the seats that matter.

"The other major news from this poll is the Lib Dems falling in to fifth place behind the Greens. The Greens look set to achieve their ambition of one MSP from each of the regions."

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