Results of first Scottish opinion poll since leaders' debate

A poll for STV's Scotland Debates programme puts Labour ahead in voting intentions in Scotland, with a strong surge by the Liberal Democrats after the first leaders' debate.

The Ipsos/Mori  poll, of 1,005 people, was conducted by telephone between April 14 and April 17. The details will be highlighted in the first Scottish leaders' debate which will be broadcast on STV on Tuesday night at 9pm.

The research found that among those certain to vote, the figures are: 

  • Labour:     36% 
  • SNP:         26% 
  • Lib Dem:     20%
  • Con:         14%
  • Other:     4%

If the results were translated into seats, Labour would win 40 of the 59 constituencies north of the border. The LibDems would hold the 11 they won in 2005. The SNP would gain ultra marginal Ochil and South Perthshire from Labour and the Tories would once again send a solitary MP to Westminster.

The results show a reversal in fortunes for Labour and the SNP since the last two Ipsos/Mori polls in Scotland conducted before the campaign began. In November last year, the SNP was ahead of Labour, by February Labour was back in a slight lead but this latest poll during the general election campaign shows a much stronger performance for Labour.

IN DEPTH

The surge in support noted by UK polls for the LibDems since the leaders' debate shown on STV last Thursday is also apparent. Two days of fieldwork for this poll was carried out before the debate and two afterwards. The results showLibDem support leaping from 14% to 20%, with Labour down 3 percentage points (from 39% to 36% and the SNP down two percentage points (from 28% to 26%)

There are also a significant amount of undecided voters - with 42% of those asked yet to make up their mind.

Scotland Debates will see leading figures from the nation's four main parties go head-to-head before a cross-section of voters. STV will broadcast the hour-long event from 9pm on Tuesday across the whole of Scotland - including the Borders.

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