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UK manufacturing healthy in July but slowdown seen

By Christina Fincher and David MillikenLONDON (Reuters) - British factory output maintained a healthy pace of growth in July, official data showed on Wednesday, but a slowdown in both manufacturing and the broader economy looks inevitable to economists.

08 September 2010 15:10 GMT

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Factory output rose 0.3 percent on the month, the same pace as June and May, continuing its recovery from last year's deep recession. That lifted the annual growth rate to 4.9 percent, the highest since December 1994.

But the impact of austerity measures and a slowing global economy means the pace looks hard to sustain.

"It's a decent reading," said George Buckley, UK economist at Deutsche Bank. "But I think it's going to be quite difficult to achieve the same rates of growth going forward."

The broader measure of industrial output also rose 0.3 percent on the month, recovering from a 0.5 percent drop in June caused by an early start to oil rig maintenance. The statistics office said there was scope for further gains as more oil rigs came back on stream in August.

A recovery in oil production, however, may do little to counter the broader economic headwinds and the government was careful not to boast.

"We need to be cautious as manufacturing activity may slow over the coming months, but I am most encouraged that the sector continues to be more productive," said Conservative business minister Mark Prisk.

HEADWINDS GROW

Britain's economy grew a surprisingly strong 1.2 percent in the second quarter of this year, but recent surveys suggest that marked a high-water mark, with growth likely to ease markedly for the rest of the year.

Forecasters at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think-tank calculated that British GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.7 percent in the three months to August from 1.3 percent in the three months to July.

"Unfortunately, the rate of growth will continue to decelerate over the coming months," said NIESR.

Given the fragility of the recovery, the think tank predicted the Bank of England would keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent until mid-2011 at the earliest -- a view that is now mainstream.

A breakdown by category within the manufacturing sector showed machinery and equipment, textiles, and paper, printing and publishing continued to record solid expansion. The main faller was transport equipment, particularly the production of motor vehicles.

Industry data last month showed car production fell by an annual 8.9 percent in July, the first decline since October, reflecting weaker demand after the end of European government schemes to encourage consumers to scrap older cars and buy new models.

Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank, said Wednesday's output figures taken together with last week's PMI surveys suggested Britain could see third-quarter growth of just 0.3-0.5 percent.

"It's half that of the second quarter but for the moment it's probably the best we're going to get," he said.

(Editing by Mike Peacock)

(c) Reuters 2012. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.

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