By Brian Rohan
BERLIN (Reuters) - German industrial output grew at its fastest rate since reunification in the third quarter, and exports rose for the fourth time in five months, showing the euro zone should have a faster bounce out of recession in the third quarter.
A flash estimate of German gross domestic product (GDP) is due out on Friday. Economists polled last week had forecast it would expand 0.8 percent in the third quarter, but Monday's data suggest the prediction may have been too cautious.
It also pointed to the euro zone having emerged strongly from recession in the third quarter -- ahead of official data on the 16-member currency area due on Friday. Analysts forecast the zone to have grown 0.5 pct in quarterly terms.
"Germany's weight in the euro zone means that now it could show higher growth than previously expected," said Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
"If tomorrow's industry output figures from France and Italy surprise on the upside we will surely see 0.6 percent euro zone growth in the third quarter," he added.
Industrial output in Germany -- which accounts for about 30 percent of the euro zone economy -- rose a monthly 2.7 percent shooting past the consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent gain.
On the quarter, it rose 3.5 percent. Reuters calculations -- also confirmed by analysts -- showed that was the largest quarterly jump since Germany reunited in 1990. Monday marked the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
TOUGH 2010
The world's biggest economies -- the European Union, the United States and Japan -- are either expected to or already have emerged from recession in the third quarter.
But a Group of 20 meeting -- and the IMF -- on Saturday stressed that the recovery was largely based on fiscal and monetary stimulus and pledged to keep the aid flowing until recovery was assured.
Germany's steel federation on Monday said there would be no recovery for the domestic industry until at least 2011, following a "very difficult" 2010, though its leader said the worst was behind it.
Dirk Schumacher, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said the German data meant his forecast GDP expansion of one percent in the July-September period might now be surpassed.
"One has to keep in mind, however, that the overall level of activity is still low, with output being some 15 percent below its August 2008 level," Schumacher said.
The September rise in German exports -- a 3.8 percent jump to 68.3 billion euros according to the Federal Statistics Office -- also lent credence to the idea that activity may have been higher than expected in the 16-country area.
France also publishes its latest GDP data on Friday, expected to show a gain of 0.6 percent.
The German production data showed that construction output fell 1.8 percent on the month, while manufacturing output was up 3.2 percent and energy production rose 0.4 percent.
Germany posted growth of 0.3 percent when exiting recession in the second quarter and recent indicators suggest that expansion accelerated during the July-September period.
German manufacturing orders rose for the seventh month running in September on firmer foreign demand. August's output figure was revised upwards by a tenth of a point to show a rise of 1.8 percent, the Economy Ministry said.
(Reporting by Brian Rohan; editing by Patrick Graham)
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