Salmond: Referendum plans published
A key turning point or a humiliating climbdown?
Today, after much delay, Alex Salmond unveiled his draft referendum bill. But there's an important word in that sentence - draft.
Mr Salmond isn't, in reality, introducing his bill today at all.
Instead all he's doing is putting his bill out to - yes - you guessed it… consultation.
Now that may sound surprising, after all the Scottish Government's already held an extensive 'National Conversation' on this very issue.
They've held sessions around the country, taking questions from ordinary Scots about why the Union should come to an end and why Scotland should go it alone.
But nevertheless, here we are - another consultation beckons.
The reason? Well that's simple. Or in fact it's not - it’s very complicated and exceedingly tied up in the political machinations of Holyrood.
In short - if Mr Salmond formally lodged his bill now it would be considered by a committee chaired by a Labour convenor.
That would - due to the political arithmetic at Holyrood - effectively see the bill killed off in its infancy.
Mr Salmond's obviously keen to prevent this from happening so in his words he's "out-manoeuvring the manoeuvrers".
Cue howls of derision from the assembled Unionist ranks - they see it as a humiliating climbdown by the First Minister.
Not so according to Mr Salmond - it's just good politics: why introduce a bill now when you know it won't survive?
By introducing the bill in draft form only, the detail is now out there for all to see - but the opposition are powerless to kill it.
In short this is a tactical withdrawal. Mr Salmond's picking up the ball and refusing to play until the weather gets a bit brighter.
The consultation will now examine what package of extra powers to put to the Scottish people.
Crucially, this latest conversation will be led by the Scottish Government, not by the Parliament (as would be the case if it was formally lodged).
This will, of course, delay any formal scrutiny of the bill by MSPs until the other side of the General Election.
At that stage Mr Salmond hopes the "febrile" atmosphere of the pre-election period will have subsided and his bill will get a fairer hearing.
Who knows - one of the Unionist parties, all of whom are currently against a referendum, may even switch sides and give him the votes need to force the bill through Holyrood.
The Tories are unlikely to budge, but there remains a sneaking feeling the Lib Dems or even Labour (who back a referendum in principle, just not now) may do a deal at some stage in the future.
So for now the biggest consequence of Mr Salmond's decision is the timing of any future referendum.
He hoped it would be held in 2010 - that's now all but impossible.
Even if Mr Salmond can eventually navigate his bill through Holyrood, realistically it would be 2011 before Scots would cast their vote.
In the meantime the SNP's journey towards independence is in limbo.
